Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says the first part of the Energy Action Plan’s (EAP’s) two-part goal of reducing the intensity of loadshedding has been largely achieved as the plan approaches its first-year anniversary. However, he says more work is required to address the second part, which relates to reducing the frequency of power cuts, which remain a daily reality.

Delivering his weekly update on the implementation of the plan as the high-load Gauteng province was being hit by a cold front, Ramokgopa moved to highlight the supply and demand improvements that had been made since the EAP’s unveiling by President Cyril Ramaphosa on July 25 last year.

Demand during the winter period had remained well below the 34 000 MW peak forecast by Eskom ahead of winter, which, had it materialised in a context where breakdowns had continued to exceed 15 000 MW, could have resulted in the utility declaring Stage 8 loadshedding for the first time.

In the event, warmer weather in the northern parts of the country, shutdowns by electricity-intensive firms seeking to avoid the high winter tariffs introduced on June 1, the overall weak economic climate and better-than-expected wind plant performance had combined to keep peak demand subdued.

Even the sharp dip in temperatures being forecast for Gauteng on Monday was not expected to result in demand rising much above 30 000 MW, which meant demand was expected to remain well below the 32 000 MW base case outlined for the week in Eskom’s original winter plan.

Even if there were to be a weather-related surge in demand, Ramokgopa argued that his attention during the period would remain on the supply side and whether it would continue its current upward trend.

Over the seven days prior to the briefing, an average of 28 272 MW of supply had been available, marginally below average demand of 29 969 MW for the period. This had enabled Eskom to implement loadshedding mostly at Stage 1, while implementing Stage 3 over evening peaks.

“We have achieved the first assignment that the President had given us. The President said reduce the intensity of loadshedding [and] that's a tick.

“Then, the President said reduce the frequency of loadshedding and there is no tick there.

“We have not gotten to a stage where there is 24 hours of uninterrupted electricity supply,” Ramokgopa said, but nevertheless stated that he was “chuffed” by the progress being made on the EAP.

He also used the briefing to provide a first anniversary “balance sheet” of progress and particularly highlighted the support government had received from the private sector in delivering on the EAP.

He noted that some 100 experts had been mobilised in support of the plan and attributed the addition or recovery of some 4 500 MW at Eskom to their collective efforts.

Also highlighted were the interim solutions found to expedite the return of Medupi Unit 4 by April 2024 and to return Kusile units 1, 2 and 3 by year-end. No mention was made, however, of a legal challenge to the Kusile solution, which is based on the bypassing of a key pollution-control system.

On the plan’s objective of enabling and accelerating private investment and procurement, the following progress was highlighted:

• The growth in the pipeline of distributed generation projects seeking to take advantage of recent market liberalisation to over 100 projects with a combined 10 000 MW;
• The contracting of 100 MW from generators for Eskom’s standard offer and a further 293 MW for its emergency generation programme;
• Cross-border purchases of 400 MW and a further 1 000 MW identified, including from Karpowership in Mozambique;
• Progress on the solar and battery repowering projects at the retired Komati power station, which has emerged as a flagship Just Energy Transition site;
• Moves by Eskom to add battery storage and a procurement programme for an initial 513 MW in private battery projects; and
• Progress on some of the 19 renewables projects selected under the fifth bid window, with a total of 784 MW in construction, and more expected to reach financial close before the end of July.

He said solid progress was also being made on the other objectives of unleashing business and households to invest in rooftop solar and on fundamentally transforming the electricity sector.