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TRADE TUSSLES: The most extreme tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on ‘Liberation Day’ have been paused and some bilateral ‘deals’ have been struck. Nevertheless, the trading environment is tighter and more uncertain than was the case at the start of the year and there are few immediate prospects of any return to a rules-based system. Instead there is an ever increasing number of flimsy bilateral barter deals.
TRADE TUSSLES
23rd May 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
ACTION: It may be the third attempt, but crafting a Budget that meets the expansionary aspirations of some, the demands for cuts by others, while remaining within the debt limits desired by just about everyone else will be an extremely difficult balancing act. What’s more, the growth and, thus, probably the revenue outlook will need to be moderated relative to the February projections to remain credible.
ACTION
16th May 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
NEW PERIL: South Africa was hoping to begin breaking free from its low-growth trap this year. It avoided what would have been another self-inflicted wound by allowing the spat over VAT to break up the Government of National Unity. But the uncertainty created by the tariff wars could well knock us down yet again.
NEW PERIL
9th May 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
STEEL ECHOES: The similarities in the debate over the future of British Steel, in Scunthorpe, England, and ArcelorMittal South Africa’s Newcastle Works, in KwaZulu-Natal, are striking. While production and jobs at the UK plant have been saved through government taking control, the current Newcastle reprieve is being paid for by the State-owned Industrial Development Corporation. In both cases, though, the longer-term outlook is unclear.
STEEL ECHOES
2nd May 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
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WREAKING HAVOC
25th April 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
EXTREME RIDE: Those in business who previously believed that President Donald Trump’s most extreme instincts would be tamed by stock market reactions and/or unfavourable polls have been rudely awakened by his disastrous tariff announcements. With the internal guardrails having been dismantled in the sycophantical Trump 2.0 executive, many now fear the worst.
EXTREME RIDE
18th April 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF WALL: Ahead of his first Presidential term, Donald Trump campaigned on building a wall on the US-Mexico border that he insisted Mexicans would pay for. In his second, the US President is building tariff walls and insisting that the costs will be borne by the exporting countries. Economic history and theory show that US businesses and consumers will be the ones paying the initial costs, however.
TARIFF WALL
11th April 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
PRESSURE COOKER: Even those who claim to be “tuning out” for fear of “news burnout” are unconsciously aware that the world has entered a perilous new era. That’s not to say change is not needed as the world chafes at its old-normal seams. But there is a risk that some of the changes will have calamitous consequences, as the most powerful cook in the geopolitical kitchen turns up the heat and shows little appetite for pressure regulation.
PRESSURE COOKER
4th April 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
BRIGHT SPOT
BRIGHT SPOT
28th March 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
ON AGAIN, OFF AGAIN: With US President Donald Trump having flip-flopped twice on his stated intention to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, markets continue to feel the effects of the uncertainty created. This uncertainty is amplified further by the threat of so-called reciprocal tariffs and in South Africa by the real prospect of being removed as a beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
ON AGAIN, OFF AGAIN
21st March 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
DEADLY CUT: The US government’s decision to halt funding for African HIV programmes was not unexpected. Nevertheless, the sudden manner of the withdrawal is both disruptive and potentially deadly for tens of thousands of people who have been heavily reliant on the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief since 2003. Unless alternative funding is found, and found quickly, the hitherto successful fight against the disease itself could be set back decades.
DEADLY CUT
14th March 2025 By: Terence Creamer
HAT-TRICK
HAT-TRICK
7th March 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF OVERHANG: While economists are warning that President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs are bad not only for world trade but for American consumers, the White House continues to see them as a core revenue-raising tool as it prepares to cut domestic taxes. The risk of an all-out trade war is, thus, higher than it has been for decades and, worryingly, trade wars are often followed by real ones.
TARIFF OVERHANG
28th February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
PERFORMATIVE DISRUPTION: The first few weeks of President Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House have been accompanied by a paper whirlwind of executive orders, including one that specifically targets South Africa. Designed for maximum effect and disruption, it’s difficult to immediately assess which of the orders can be sustained in the absence of a fully fledged legislative agenda. In the meantime, there is no question that the orders are causing havoc both at home and abroad.
PERFORMATIVE DISRUPTION
21st February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
SHARPIE EDGE: As is the case for many countries currently, South Africa is living in the shadow of President Donald Trump and the sharpie he is using as part of his ‘flood the zone’ executive-order strategy. While many (but not all) of these orders will be stopped in the courts and eventually by Congress, living on the sharpie’s edge is still highly disruptive and distracting.
SHARPIE EDGE
14th February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
BURNING PLATFORMS: Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau has an extremely full inbox. He is hoping (possibly against hope) to halt the closure by ArcelorMittal South Africa of its longs division. Tau is also juggling persistent allegations of corruption and mismanagement at the South African Bureau of Standards, trade-disruption risks arising out of the US and Europe and backlash over a proposed new fund to support black empowerment.
BURNING PLATFORMS
7th February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
SMOKE & FIRE: Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni’s “smoke them out” comments in relation to illegal miners were not simply highly inappropriate for a Cabinet spokesperson but were, for many, repugnant. With a judge having reportedly described her actions in relation to a 2009 municipal tender as “repugnant and devastating”, a thick pall of smoke now hangs over her.
SMOKE & FIRE
31st January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
NEW ENTRANTS: With the publication of the long-awaited Network Statement in December, a bidding process is now under way for the first rail routes that have been made available for private train operating companies. A modest 2.4-million tons has been set aside for third parties in a network that is said to have a yearly capacity of 180-million tons. Nevertheless, there is an expectation that the opening could be key to recovering rail capacity to the 250-milion-ton target.
NEW ENTRANTS
24th January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
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CRYPTO RISING
17th January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
HARD TO READ: The world has entered a most uncertain period, with hot wars in hot-spot regions having resurrected the spectre of nuclear conflict. Disinformation has played a role in several political disruptions and is undermining efforts to tackle global problems collectively, most notably the climate crisis. The ongoing geopolitical realignment has diplomatic heads in a spin, as does the prospect of President Trump 2.0.
HARD TO READ
6th December 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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