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PERFORMATIVE DISRUPTION: The first few weeks of President Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House have been accompanied by a paper whirlwind of executive orders, including one that specifically targets South Africa. Designed for maximum effect and disruption, it’s difficult to immediately assess which of the orders can be sustained in the absence of a fully fledged legislative agenda. In the meantime, there is no question that the orders are causing havoc both at home and abroad.
PERFORMATIVE DISRUPTION
21st February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
SHARPIE EDGE: As is the case for many countries currently, South Africa is living in the shadow of President Donald Trump and the sharpie he is using as part of his ‘flood the zone’ executive-order strategy. While many (but not all) of these orders will be stopped in the courts and eventually by Congress, living on the sharpie’s edge is still highly disruptive and distracting.
SHARPIE EDGE
14th February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
BURNING PLATFORMS: Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau has an extremely full inbox. He is hoping (possibly against hope) to halt the closure by ArcelorMittal South Africa of its longs division. Tau is also juggling persistent allegations of corruption and mismanagement at the South African Bureau of Standards, trade-disruption risks arising out of the US and Europe and backlash over a proposed new fund to support black empowerment.
BURNING PLATFORMS
7th February 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
SMOKE & FIRE: Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni’s “smoke them out” comments in relation to illegal miners were not simply highly inappropriate for a Cabinet spokesperson but were, for many, repugnant. With a judge having reportedly described her actions in relation to a 2009 municipal tender as “repugnant and devastating”, a thick pall of smoke now hangs over her.
SMOKE & FIRE
31st January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
NEW ENTRANTS: With the publication of the long-awaited Network Statement in December, a bidding process is now under way for the first rail routes that have been made available for private train operating companies. A modest 2.4-million tons has been set aside for third parties in a network that is said to have a yearly capacity of 180-million tons. Nevertheless, there is an expectation that the opening could be key to recovering rail capacity to the 250-milion-ton target.
NEW ENTRANTS
24th January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
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CRYPTO RISING
17th January 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
HARD TO READ: The world has entered a most uncertain period, with hot wars in hot-spot regions having resurrected the spectre of nuclear conflict. Disinformation has played a role in several political disruptions and is undermining efforts to tackle global problems collectively, most notably the climate crisis. The ongoing geopolitical realignment has diplomatic heads in a spin, as does the prospect of President Trump 2.0.
HARD TO READ
6th December 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF WALL: President Donald Trump did not build the wall on America’s southern border that he promised ahead of his first term. Nor did he get Mexico to pay for it. He seems strongly committed, however, to building a tariff wall during his second term. Such a strategy could be inflationary in the US and may also have global ramifications, potentially even triggering a costly trade war.
TARIFF WALL
29th November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
LONG SHADOW: The election of Donald Trump as America’s next President did not come as a total surprise. Nevertheless, it is still sending global shockwaves that will be felt for at least the coming four years, but probably longer. As with every country in the world, South Africa will have to adjust its approach to relations with the US, which will no longer be guided by issues of principle but rather by a series of piecemeal transactions.
LONG SHADOW
22nd November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
SHOCK ABSORBER: Apart from #Eskom itself, it will be one-way traffic when the National Energy Regulator of South Africa hosts public hearings into the State-owned utility’s latest revenue application between November 18 and December 4. Business, local government, labour and civil society organisations will all be demanding the regulator acts as a shock absorber against the prospect of a hike next year of over 36%.
SHOCK ABSORBER
15th November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
GEO-JUGGLING: Hardly a week goes by without at least one headline pointing to an issue that could result in the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU), which has been widely welcomed at home and abroad. Many of these are domestic, from basic education to health. In a context where geopolitical tensions are on the rise, however, the divergent worldviews of key parties are also emerging as potential triggers for schism.
GEO-JUGGLING
8th November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
INFLATION TARGET: South Africa’s official inflation-target band is 3% to 6%, but South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago has made it clear for some time now that his target is actually the mid-point. In a recent speech, Kganyago acknowledged concern about the employment and growth costs of pursuing a lower target. However, he went on to quote studies indicating that there had been “little or no cost to getting inflation to 4.5%”, the takeaway being that he has no intention of applying the brakes while he is behind the monetary-policy wheel.
INFLATION TARGET
1st November 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
SORE THUMB: Business and the markets have reacted positively to South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU). Cooperation also seems to be the order of the day in many departments and provinces. South Africa’s economic heartland of Gauteng, however, is sticking out like a sore thumb in its overt and covert moves to undermine the GNU. Given the minority-government set-up in the province, it’s a high-stakes political game.
SORE THUMB
25th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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NEW TARGET
18th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
HIGH-WIRE ACT: The lack of grid capacity has emerged as a key constraint to South Africa’s renewable-energy ambitions. While the National Transmission Company South Africa has a plan, it lacks the balance sheet to go it alone. The problem is that there is still no obvious agreement on the model that could be used to add capacity through Independent Power Transmission projects. Policymakers will have to show skill and agility if they are to navigate this high-wire balancing act.
HIGH-WIRE ACT
11th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF TUG OF WAR: With the official release of Eskom’s allowable revenue application, which confirms that it is indeed seeking a hefty 36% hike next year, all eyes will now turn to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. The upcoming public hearings in November and December are likely to be robust and hostile, particularly for Eskom, which won’t receive much support, if any, even from government.
TARIFF TUG OF WAR
4th October 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
FISSION AGAIN: Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa is the latest government champion of nuclear. He has described opposition to the technology as unscientific and has insisted that South Africa should be gearing up to add more capacity beyond Koeberg. The question that this latest ‘fission expedition’ needs to answer is not the science, however, but rather the hard-nosed technoeconomics.
FISSION AGAIN
27th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
GROWTH RETHINK
GROWTH RETHINK
20th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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WRECKING BALL
13th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF TUSSLE
TARIFF TUSSLE
6th September 2024 By: Darlene Creamer
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