The effects of the six-week strike in the automotive industry – first at assembly plants and then at component makers – will only be felt “two . . . three years from now”, when South African components manufacturers do not receive any new export contracts, says National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers (Naacam) executive director Robert Houdet.

South Africa’s components industry has two main customers, local vehicle assemblers, such as Toyota, BMW and Ford, and overseas clients receiving export orders from the country.

Houdet says procurement and logistics staff in countries to which South Africa exports components “have been losing sleep” the last few weeks over whether they “were going to receive their components from South Africa or not”.

“I was in that position in Europe a few years ago. Believe me, you never forget. Decisions are taken about South Africa yesterday, today and tomorrow about whether to source from this country, and these strikes weigh heavily against South Africa.

“When decision time comes about where to source from, people will say South Africa had a six-week strike and we struggled to keep our plants running. We can’t afford that risk. They will go somewhere else.

“You won’t see this negative impact today, but you will see it two . . . three years down the line, when contracts are not renewed. Factories will close, and we must not wonder why. We have given the signal that South Africa’s labour situation is unstable.”

Houdet adds that repeated claims by trade unions that any company’s first objective is to maximise profits do not reflect the truth.

“The first objective of any business is to survive, and we tend to forget that. People think businesses go on for ever and ever. They don’t. Businesses die.”

Houdet notes that component makers returned to production on October 7, labouring to “quickly catch up” on lost orders.

One difficulty is that some urgent orders may have to be sent by air, which is more costly, as the sea route is not an option owing to the strike.

It will take four to five weeks before the first poststrike components shipment reaches European vehicle assembly plants by sea.

Assembly plants, which normally use two suppliers for a component, in an effort to reduce risk, may also by now have placed increased orders from their second source.