Brexit – We’re not gonna take it
October 31 is only 76 days away – well, at the time of writing. It should be close to 62 days away as you read this piece.
Although Brexit – that is, Britain exiting the European Union (EU) – is not quite the riveting news in South Africa that it is in Britain, that does not make it less important. While Britain will leave the EU, with or without a trade deal, South Africa and many of Britain’s previous overseas territories – you could read colonies – will retain their preferential trade agreements with the EU.
This introduces an interesting dynamic. South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and India – the big four former overseas territories – will have no preferential trade agreements with Britain, which left its overseas territories in 1973 to join the EU. Essentially, it chose North over South.
But now, as Britain goes it alone, so to speak, just how loyal and accommodating will it find its pre-1973 overseas territories? Will bygones be bygones or, as the old proverb goes, will they let all things past pass? Without a shadow of a doubt, there will be greater eagerness on Britain’s side to conclude a preferential with the big four than on the side of the big four. If you doubt this statement, there are a few considerations. Just how many shipments of South African products or produce will be shipped straight to Britain? Just how preferential was the Southern African Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) for South Africa, which it signed with the EU following the initial Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement? If Britain defaults to World Trade Organisation tariffs, just what additional preferential trade preferences can South Africa obtain? In the instance of the latter, if South Africa has not considered this, and done its calculations, then this would be most disappointing, to say but the least.
This begs the question: Why would South Africa sign a preferential trade agreement with Britain whose terms and conditions are the same as those enshrined in the agreement with the EU? Consider this: Britain would no doubt be keen to conclude a deal, while South Africa might be less keen to do so. So, South Africa would have the advantage in negotiations in that it could, if it prepared correctly, hold out and potentially gain more from the negotiations.
In looking at the EPA, South Africa should consider those products for which it could gain real access into Britain. The obvious product categories are fruit and vegetables, which, largely because of the influence of the Southern Mediterranean countries, are at extremely high tariff levels. Since Britain does not produce a large variety of these products – even those that it produces are not nearly enough for its own domestic use – this could be perfect for South Africa to negotiate preferential market access.
More challenging, of course, would be for South African companies that have used British inputs in their products that make their way into the EU. The rules of origin in that instance are a can of worms.
If anything, South Africa should take the game to Britain, as it were, and not wait for Britain to bring the game to South Africa.
In all the excitement about the impending preferential trade negotiations, I am reminded of the Twisted Sister’s 1984 Rock Anthem: ‘We’re Not Gonna Take It’. To get South Africa’s trade negotiators in the right mood, they might heed the lyrics: “Oh, we’re not gonna take it; No, we ain’t gonna take it; Oh, we’re not gonna take it, anymore; We’ve got the right to choose and; There ain’t no way we’ll lose it; This is our life, this is our song …; We’re right! (Yeah!); We’re free! (Yeah!); We’ll fight! (Yeah!); You’ll see! (Yeah!)”
All is free in love and war, as it is, arguably, in preferential trade negotiations. It is time for South Africa to step up and to take the game to Britain.
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