Council for Scientific and Industrial Research graduate engineer Mashudu Rathogwa is conducting research into the future of transport from a system dynamics perspective that has, thus far, focussed on bridging the gap between conceptualising and implementing transport sustainability plans and the challenges thereof.

Speaking to Engineering News at the Smarter Mobility Summit earlier in October, she said her research, which started two years ago, stemmed from a situation where many sustainability plans have been drafted but do not align with government plans.

Rathogwa noted that, despite numerous sustainability plans being made and resources being channelled into those plans, in some instances, there was a gap between what the plans were intended to achieve and what was achieved in reality.

As such, her research aims to address how these gaps occur and how they can be overcome, using system dynamics modelling.

Through her research, Rathogwa identified a “critical sub model” – the major factors that need to be addressed to result in a satisfactory turnaround of sustainability plans and appropriate outcomes.

This turnaround is key to addressing any backlogs, which she says is often the difference between a city’s plans and intentions for sustainability and how the city is performing in terms of sustainability.

In terms of the transportation sector, the critical sub model is focused on how cities and transport authorities are using their transport budgets. “Not only the transport budget, but also the city budget – how much of that is allocated to transportation,” said Rathogwa.

Her research also looks into the capability of government departments in terms of skills and other resources and whether these are sufficient to actually progress sustainable transport initiatives and projects.

Further, Rathogwa’s research also delves into government departments’ ability to be agile in a changing environment and whether they are moving with the times or becoming stuck.

As for progress to date, she said her research would need to be wrapped up next year, after which it would be peer reviewed.

In the interim, she and the CSIR have been co-building transport sustainability models with four cities.

However, a challenge thus far has been finding accurate data to build models upon.

Going forward, Rathogwa intends to use case studies, innovative methods of attaining the relevant data and looking into political will to develop sustainable transport models.

Following this, she intends to use computer-based system dynamics to conduct different scenarios and analysis thereof, test the sensitivity of her models and then develop a framework for the four cities to improve their transport sustainability.