Although Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are key to decarbonisation, current NDCs only amount to 1300 GW, or 12%, of the renewable-energy capacity needed to meet the objective of tripling renewable energy as set at the COP28 conference.

At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple the world’s renewable power capacity this decade, which is one of the critical actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5 ˚C.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds in a new report that countries’ ambitions and implementation plans are not yet in line with the overarching goals set at COP28, but that countries still have the opportunity in the coming months to develop clear plans for boosting renewable power.

The report, titled ‘COP28 tripling renewable capacity pledge: tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap’, states that governments’ domestic ambitions correspond to almost 8 000 GW of globally installed renewable capacity by 2030.

This means that if countries were to include all their existing policies, plans and estimates in their new NDCs due next year – including revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035 – this would reflect 70% of the 11 000 GW of installed renewable-energy capacity that is needed by 2030.

The IEA explains that there is ample scope for countries to bring their NDCs in line with their current domestic ambitions, though implementation must be accelerated and ambitions need to be improved further.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol says the tripling target is ambitious but achievable if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action. He adds that the IEA will continue to support governments around the world in efforts to achieve more sustainable and secure energy systems.

The report also finds that the amount of renewable-energy capacity added worldwide each year has tripled since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. This is largely owing to policy support, economies of scale and technological progress, which have all driven down the cost of solar PV and wind by more than 40% over the period.

Global renewable-energy capacity additions reached almost 560 GW in 2023, marking a 64% increase from 2022, to which China was the biggest contributor.

However, the IEA says key challenges, such as lengthy wait times for project permits, inadequate investment in grid infrastructure, the need to quickly and cost-effectively integrate variable renewables and high financing costs – particularly in emerging economies – remain.

To this end, the agency suggests that stakeholders help reduce financing costs by improving the bankability of renewables projects and improve long-term policy visibility. It also calls for greater project support in the pre- development phase and reduced inflation and exchange rate risks for new developers.

The IEA continues to track progress towards pledges made at COP conferences, including NDCs under the Paris Agreement.

With its data and policy recommendations, the agency continues to drive forward the implementation of climate goals.

Environmental organisation 350.org associate director Andreas Sieber comments that government’s ambitions are far off target to meet the agreement to triple renewable capacity by 2030, however, the real world economy is outpacing politicians with rapid growth and falling costs of renewables.