The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects electric vehicle (EV) sales to rise to a record 17-million in 2024, representing more than one in every five passenger cars sold, but with sales likely to remain highly concentrated in the Chinese, European and US markets.

Sales rose by 35% last year to a record level of nearly 14-million units, lifting the number of EVs on the road globally to 40-million, and with battery electric cars accounting for 70% of the electric car stock.

“In 2023, there were over 250 000 new registrations per week, which is more than the annual total in 2013, ten years earlier,” the latest ‘Global Electric Vehicle Outlook’ report shows.

Electric cars accounted for around 18% of all cars sold in 2023, up from 14% in 2022 and only 2% in 2018. However, 95% of all sales were in only three markets, with just under 60% of new EV registrations in China, nearly 25% in Europe and 10% in the US.

The report states that electric car sales continued to increase in emerging market and developing economies outside China last year but remained low overall, with EVs accounting for less than 1% of total car sales in Africa.

However, growth picked up in countries such as Vietnam (around 15% of all cars sold) and Thailand (10%), while EV supply chains are rapidly developing in Mexico, stimulated by access to subsidies from the US Inflation Reduction Act.

The IEA states that the pace of the transition to EVs hinges on their affordability, but that the roll-out of public charging also needs to keep pace with EV sales.

In 2023, internal combustion engine cars were less expensive in all markets besides China, where more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper than their average combustion engine equivalent.

“When exactly price parity is reached is subject to a range of market variables, but current trends suggest that it could be reached by 2030 in major EV markets outside China for most models,” the report states.

It argues, therefore, that the pricing strategies of car manufacturers will be crucial for improving affordability, as will the pace of EV battery price declines.

“In developing economies outside China, more affordable electric car models are arriving, and the future of electric two- and three-wheelers already looks bright,” the IEA report states.

A recent report by GreenCape in South Africa also highlighted the potential for two- and three-wheel EVs, particularly given the growth in e-commerce, which is increasing demand for last-mile delivery services. The GreenCape report estimates the yearly market size for such micro EVs at 50 000.

Meanwhile, the IEA report states that the global number of installed public charging points rose 40% year-on-year in 2023, with growth for fast chargers outpacing that of slower ones.

It adds that broad, affordable access to public charging infrastructure will be needed for a mass-market switch to electric transport and to enable longer journeys – even if most charging continues to take place privately in residential and workplace settings.

“To reach EV deployment levels in the Announced Policies Scenario, public charging needs to increase sixfold by 2035. As more electric heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks and large buses hit the road, dedicated and flexible charging is needed.”

The report finds that manufacturers have taken major steps to deliver on the strengthening EV ambitions of governments, including by making significant financial commitments.

“Thanks to high levels of investment in the past five years, global EV battery manufacturing capacity far exceeded demand in 2023, at around 2.2 terawatt-hours and 750 gigawatt-hours, respectively.”

The report adds that manufacturing capacity appears capable of keeping pace with demand, with committed and existing battery manufacturing capacity aligned with the needs of the net-zero pathway.

Nevertheless, mining and refining will need to continue growing to avoid supply chain bottlenecks and make supply chains more resilient to potential disruptions.

“Doing so will also require striking a balance between remaining profitable while competing on prices.

“Innovative technologies such as sodium-ion batteries can potentially mitigate demand for critical minerals, together with the rise of mature battery chemistries requiring lower amounts of critical metals, such as lithium iron phosphate.”