A new International Energy Agency (IEA) report argues that nuclear capacity could double to 870 GW by 2050 in light of renewed interest in the building of new nuclear plants, including small modular reactors (SMRs), as well as in extending the lifetimes of existing power stations.

Nevertheless, the technology’s share of global electricity generation is still expected to remain below 10%, in light of expectations that even stronger electricity demand growth over the period will be met primarily by renewable energy.

Titled ‘The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy’, the report asserts that interest in nuclear energy is at its highest level since the 1970s oil crisis, with more than 40 countries, including South Africa, pursuing or assessing new capacity and with the first commercial SMR projects expected to start operation in the 2030s.

The report includes reference to South Africa’s decision to extend the life of Koeberg Unit 1 by 20 years to 2044, as well as processes to do likewise at Unit 2. It also notes moves by the country, which mothballed the pebble bed modular reactor programme in 2010, to develop its own SMR designs.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said this renewed impetus was partly reflected in the fact that more than 70 GW of new capacity was currently under construction globally, albeit heavily skewed in favour of China, which is poised to have the world’s largest nuclear fleet by 2030.

He also saw SMRs offering exciting growth potential, highlighting in particular the appetite being shown by the data-centre sector, especially in the US, where there were plans of varying maturity for up to 25 GW of SMR capacity.

Birol said that over the coming 15 years, the IEA was forecasting that SMR costs could fall to between $60/MWh and $80/MWh, which would make them competitive with offshore wind and large-scale hydro projects. These cost estimates, he noted, were higher than those being forecast by SMR vendors.

IEA energy markets and security director Keisuke Sadamori said improving the competitiveness of SMRs would require ongoing innovation by SMR technology companies and new business models that improved prospects for commercial funding.

The interest in SMRs being shown by private entities was seen as especially positive, as technology companies could take advantage of their strong credit ratings to facilitate financing for projects.

However, government support, including in the form of streamlined regulatory frameworks and processes, would remain key for de-risking projects and unlocking finance.

“Momentum is clearly building for the technology, but SMRs’ success will hinge on whether government support, innovation and new business models enable them to bring down their costs quickly enough.

“If that happens, SMRs could account for 10% of all nuclear capacity globally by 2040,” the reports states.

Birol argued that it would also hinge on an improved project-management performance by the industry, where previous projects in the US and Europe had experience delays of eight years on average and overshot their capital budgets by two-and-a-half times.