There are two words that invoke the same emotion when I hear them: ‘like’ and ‘investment’.

‘Like’ is considered a filler word, also known as a pause filler or hesitation form, as it is so eloquently articulated in Fillers, Pauses and Placeholders. A filler word is an apparently meaningless word, phrase, or sound that marks a pause or hesitation in speech.

Um, uh, er, ah, like, okay, right, you know, investment is what South Africa needs. I am extremely irritated by fillers. I fear that talk of investment has tended to become just that, a filler. President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his State of the Nation address (Sona), delivered on February 7, mentioned the word ‘investment’ 25 times; the plural form, ‘investments’, was uttered six times. The media coverage tended to focus on the Investment Conference that will be hosted “again this year”. This will be a sequel to the Investment Conference of October 25 to 27, 2018, the aim of which was to mobilise R1.2-trillion in investment over five years.

So, how successful was the first Investment Conference in achieving this aim, according to Sona?

“To prove that our investment conference was not just a talk shop where empty promises were made, as we speak, projects to the value of R187-billion are being implemented, and projects worth another R26-billion are in the pre-implementation phase. Drawing on the valuable lessons we’ve learnt, through a more focused effort, and through the improvements we’re making in the business environment, we aim to raise even more investment this year.”

Although it might . . . like . . . sound . . . like . . . it is all fine and well, look past the fillers and consider the numbers. The value of projects being implemented represents 15.58% of the five-year target, while the value of projects in the pre-implementation phase represents 2.17%. Thus, as a percentage of the five-year targets projects in the implementation and pre-implementation phases represent a combined 17.75% of the R1.2-trillion that government aims to mobilise. If we divide this investment target equally over the five-year period, then the combined value of projects under implementation or in the pre-implementation phase is R26-billion below the first-year target.

The President went on to state: “The Investment Conference attracted around R300-billion in investment pledges from South African and international companies.” It is not apparent as to whether the combined value of projects under implementation and those in the pre-implementation phase of R213-billion relates to the R300-billion; if so, this still leaves R87-billion. This raises a number of questions, including these: What is the nature of these pledges? Just how certain are the pledges? Are these pledges conditional? Are these investments in projects that require electricity?

With regard to foreign direct investment (FDI), the President said: “There was also a significant increase in FDI last year. In 2017, we recorded an inflow of FDI amounting to R17-billion. Official data shows that, just in the first three quarters of 2018, there was an inflow of R70-billion. This is a phenomenal achievement, compared with the low level of investment in the previous years.”

Looking at the numbers, FDI increased by 311.76%, and if the R70-billion is extra- polated for 2018, that will amount to R93.3-billion. This would no doubt be added to the target, although it should not. FDI is a collective of various forms of investments and, as a consequence, what it obscures is critical.

A final word on investment in Ramaphosa’s address: “We will be identifying the sectors and firms we want and need in South Africa and actively attract investors.” That also raises obvious questions, such as: Why only now? Why not yet? At what cost and commitment would this investment be?

When considering investment, think of the insight by the most successful living investor, Warren Buffett: “Investment must be rational; if you can’t understand it, don’t do it.”