South African food inflation accelerated again in June, in both year-on-year and month-on-month terms, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) think tank has highlighted in its latest 'Food Inflation Brief' report. year-on-year food inflation in June was 5.1%, while the month-on-month figure was 0.7%. These figures were also notably higher than the consumer price index (CPI) headline inflation figures of 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. The 5.1% year-on-year food inflation rate was last recorded in March 2024.

Regarding wider economic factors that affected South African agriculture, the rand continued its appreciation against the dollar, by 3.2% year-on-year, and 1.5%, month-on-month. The CPI for “electricity and other fuels” was up 11.3%, year-on-year, but down -0.2%, month-on-month. The CPI for “fuel” was also down, by -11.2%, year-on-year, and by -0.4%, month-on-month.

Concerning inflation on food categories in June, the highest year-on-year figure was vegetables, at 13.6%, followed by fruits and nuts, at 13.2%. Then came meat (6.6%), oils and fats (6.5%), non-alcoholic beverages, or NAB (5.4%), fish and other seafood (4.8%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (4.1%), and cereal products (3%), while dairy and eggs experienced deflation of -0.5%. Regarding month-on-month inflation, meat had the highest figure, at 2.2%, and then came fish and other seafood (0.7%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (0.4%), dairy and eggs (0.3%), vegetables (0.1%), NAB (also 0.1%), cereal products (again 0.1%), with oils and fats recording zero inflation. Fruits and nuts saw month-on-month deflation of -2.4%.

The year-on-year inflation rates of commonly purchased food items in June were – carrots (33.5%), lettuce (33.2%), apples (24.6%), various beef cuts (18.8%), sweet peppers (17.3%), bananas (13.8%), spinach (13.6%), sweet potatoes (11.5%), maize meal (11%), stewing mutton/lamb (10.5%), hake (10.1%), various mutton and lamb cuts (9.3%), onions (9%), various baked goods (also 9%), tomatoes (8%), beef offal (7.3%), cabbage (7.1%), ham (6.9%), pears (6.6%), bacon (6.1%), potatoes (5.8%), pork ribs (5.6%), margarine (5.4%), fish fingers (5.1%) and cooking oil (5%). Foods that saw year-on-year deflation in June were white rice, wheat flour, corned meat, eggs, whole fresh chicken and chicken giblets, mutton and lamb offal, pork fillets, canned tuna, canned baked beans, fresh milk, sour milk, and ultrahigh-temperature processed milk.

The cost of the BFAP’s Thrifty Healthy Food Basket (THFB) increased in June by 5.1%, or R192, year-on-year, and by 0.2%, or R8.52, month-on-month. The THFB is composed of 26 nutritionally-balanced food items from all the food groups and designed to feed a reference family of two adults, one older and one younger child, for a month. Buying it in June would have cost a low-income family 30.8% of its total income, amounting to a slight increase over the figure for May.

“The rand’s strength against the dollar has helped temper the impact of rising international prices,” observed the BFAP. “However, uncertainty over US political developments could influence currency markets. Positive forecasts for the 2024/2025 summer crop may relieve pricing pressure on consumer goods and animal feed costs. Nonetheless, continued [foot-and-mouth disease] outbreaks and new avian influenza detections pose risks to export opportunities, particularly for beef, and the success of containment strategies remains critical to stabilising domestic prices. Energy and fuel costs also remain key factors influencing input prices and consumer demand.”