The GDP of sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile industry is projected to reach $170- billion by 2030, provided key connectivity barriers are addressed, with opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), 5G and satellite connectivity set to bridge a 60% use gap.

In 2023, the mobile industry contributed $140-billion, or 7.3%, to the region’s GDP, with mobile connectivity a key driver of digital transformation and socioeconomic growth, according to GSMA’s ‘Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024’ report.

“Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing sub- Saharan Africa’s mobile ecosystem,” says GSMA sub-Saharan Africa head Angela Wamola.

Mobile technology is essential in supporting development goals across key sectors like healthcare, education and finance, and driving economic growth by expanding Internet access and digital services.

The latest report shows that mobile Internet penetration in sub-Saharan Africa had reached 27%, or 320-million mobile Internet users, by the end of 2023, and is expected to grow to a 37% penetration rate, or 518-million mobile Internet users, by 2030.

By the end of 2023, nearly 44%, or 527-million, of the population in sub-Saharan Africa subscribed to a mobile service.

However, a significant 60% use gap still remains.

“This gap represents millions who live within network coverage but face barriers to get online, such as device affordability, digital skills deficits and concerns around online security.”

According to the report, 3.1- billion people – 39% of the global population – are impacted by the use gap, with sub-Saharan Africa being the least connected region and having the largest use gap worldwide.

In addition to connectivity challenges, the region also faces high operating costs, inflationary pressures and energy price volatility.

However, mobile revenues have been growing steadily in the region, with this growth driven by the expansion of 4G and 5G networks, the rise in the use of mobile data and the growing adoption of technologies such as the Internet of Things.

Further, mobile operators in sub-Saharan Africa have invested more than $28-billion in mobile capital expenditure (capex) over the past five years, with mobile capex/revenue at 19% at the end of 2023.

The adoption of 4G continues to increase in the region and is forecast to account for 50% of total connections by 2030, overtaking 3G as the primary technology.

Currently, 4G accounts for 31% of connections in sub-Saharan Africa.

5G adoption is also accelerating and is forecast to contribute $10-billion to the region’s economy in 2030, accounting for 6% of mobile’s total economic impact.

5G technology is now available in 114 countries around the world, with 285 operators having launched mobile 5G services as at September 2024.

The number of 5G connections will reach two-billion globally by the end of this year, accounting for nearly a quarter of total mobile connections.

While 5G adoption is still in its early stages in sub-Saharan Africa, it is projected to grow from 1.2% in 2023, to 17% of total connections by 2030, primarily in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, according to the report.

“Additionally, 5G fixed- wireless access is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries such as Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, addressing demand for high-speed connectivity in underserved areas,” the report indicates.

In addition to the growing momentum of 4G and 5G, other key trends shaping the mobile ecosystem include market consolidation, aerial connectivity and satellite partnerships, generative AI and GSMA Open Gateway, all of which present innovative solutions to bridge gaps across sectors.

“Broader API solutions, such as GSMA Open Gateway, are poised to enhance digital security and simplify services as these initiatives expand regionally.”

By June this year, 53 operator groups had signed up to the GSMA Open Gateway initiative, representing 240 mobile networks and accounting for 67% of mobile connections globally.

In February, South Africa became the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to implement GSMA Open Gateway APIs, focusing on fraud prevention and security with number verification and SIM swap APIs.

As digital transformation accelerates in sub-Saharan Africa, generative AI is also expected to contribute up to $1.5-trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly using AI for customer engagement and network optimisation.

The report cites MTN and Vodacom as examples of operators that are implementing AI-powered initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, despite a shortage of skilled AI professionals in the region.

“To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact,” says Wamola.