At times like these, I am reminded of the sagacious words of my grandfather: “If you are not confused, then you do not have all the facts.” Irene Peter offers a slightly different reflection: “If you are not confused, you are not thinking clearly.” So, what facts are we missing, or for that matter, what are we not thinking about clearly?

I need to provide you with context for you to answer this question. Interestingly, you will find the context in the first two columns of 2025: ‘Year of the safeguard’ and ‘Metal fatigue’. Although I would like to claim that this was by design, to impress you with my insights, I can only truthfully cite Gary Player’s famous mantra, “The more I practise, the luckier I get.” Next month, it will be the twenty-fourth year of writing this column. Getting too old for this, you might say.

The confusion relates to the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (Itac); specifically, to its safeguard investigations, or should it be investigations of December 2024 and January 2025? But then again, keeping tabs on Itac’s investigations is an adventure in itself, full of twists and turns. As with any such adventure, there are unforeseen turns and misdirection, which may not be intentional.

As a case in point, take the latest safeguard investigation. To be factual, on December 27, 2024 (the day after Boxing Day), the commission published a notice in the Government Gazette titled ‘Notice of an Initiation of the Investigation for Remedial Action in the Form of a Safeguard Measure against the Increased Imports of Flat-Rolled Products of Iron or Non-Alloy Steel, of a Width of 600 mm or More, Clad, Plated or Coated, with Aluminium-Zinc Alloys, of a Thickness of Less than 0.45 mm, Classifiable under Tariff Subheadings 7210.61.20 and 7210.61.30, and Flat-Rolled Products of Other Alloy Steel, of a Width of 600 mm or more, Otherwise Plated or Coated with Zinc, of a Thickness of Less Than 0.45mm, Classifiable under Tariff Subheadings 7225.92.25 and 7225.92.35’. Quite a mouthful. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) Committee on Safeguards was seemingly not notified of this safeguard investigation in line with its requirements.

Then, on January 17, it published Government Gazette Notice 2931, titled ‘Notice of an Initiation of the Investigation for Remedial Action in the Form of a Safeguard Measure against the Increased Imports of Flat-Rolled Products of Iron or Non-Alloy Steel, of a Width of 600 mm or More, Clad, Plated or Coated, with Aluminium-Zinc Alloys, of a Thickness of Less than 0.45mm, Classifiable under Tariff Subheadings 7210.61.20 and 7210.61.30 and Flat-Rolled Products of Other Alloy Steel, of a Width of 600 mm or More, Otherwise Plated or Coated with Zinc, of a Thickness of Less Than 0.45 mm, Classifiable under Tariff Subheadings 7225.92.25 and 7225.92.35’.

The two notices might be reminiscent of the ‘spot the difference’ puzzles that appear in newspapers or magazines, where you have to find the differences between two pictures that seem identical. So, have you spotted any differences? I certainly haven’t.

Also on January 17, Itac published Government Gazette Notice 2932 (the number is significant), titled ‘Termination of the Investigation for Remedial Action in the Form of a Safeguard Against the Increased Imports of Flat-Rolled Products of Iron Or Non-Alloy Steel, . . . 7225.92.25 and 7225.92.35 (Corrosion Resistant Steel Coils)’. According to the notice, it relates to the safeguard investigation of December 27, which has now been terminated. It offered this explanation: “Due to an error in the period of surge, the commission decided to terminate the investigation.”

A few questions: Is the investigation ongoing or terminated? Why not publish a correction notice? Why terminate and republish it? Why first publish two initiations and then a termination? Why was the WTO not notified in December 2024? Has the WTO been notified of the January 2024 safeguard investigation?

If you are interested, the ‘period of surge’ on December 27 was from ‘May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024’, and on January 17 from ‘May 1, 2022, to April 30, 2024’.

Considering the ArcelorMittal South Africa announcement of January 6, could this result in the safeguard investigation being terminated for good?