I can show you the world; Shining, shimmering, splendid; . . . A whole new world; A new fantastic point of view.” If only South Africa could emerge from its economic slumber into a brand-new world of promise, as described in the theme song from Disney’s Aladdin. Even Microsoft’s Editor suggests that it should be a “a fantastic new”.

But, alas, South Africa’s emergence would be anything but ‘fantastic new’. As South Africans emerge from their government-imposed ‘economic house arrest’, it is an imperative that they confront their, and South Africa’s, reality and not be enticed into that which can at best be described as fictitious. South Africans would do well to heed American author Tom Clancy’s words: “The difference between fiction and reality? Fiction has to make sense.”

Things are going to be bad. Economically, it is going to be bad – very, very bad. During this time, most, if not all, of South Africa’s economic ills will be blamed on the coronavirus disease, popularly abbreviated as Covid-19.

But the South African economy was ill long before Covid-19 hit. It is evident from two of my recent column – ‘It’s time to put South Africa Inc into business rescue’, published on January 17, and ‘2020: the year of the IMF bail-out?’, published on January 24 – that the South African economy already had serious challenges to contend with.

Too often, we cannot see the wood from the trees. When we look at the economy, we seem to ignore its engine – companies. In recent weeks, a number of companies have either applied for business rescue or liquidation. These include Afarak Group, a specialist alloy producer; Comair, which holds the operating licence for British Airways and owns Kulula; Edcon, South Africa’s largest retail company, which owns Edgars and Jet Stores; Phumelela Gaming & Leisure; South Africa Airways and its subsidiary, Mango; and SA Express. Then there is Sasol, South Africa’s biggest company by revenue, which, according to Media24, is struggling to keep up with its debt repayments. In a Moneyweb article, a JPMorgan Chase & Co analyst is quoted as saying that Sasol going bankrupt, while unlikely, was a possibility.

If this does not scare you, then adding the State-owned enterprises (SOEs) to the mix should to do the trick. Denel is technically insolvent; Eskom is surviving on a government bail-out, or rather bail-outs; the South African Broadcasting Commission is also the recipient of a government bail-out; the South African National Roads Agency Limited continues to suffer annual losses; and the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa is in administration. Their financial positions have surely deteriorated in recent months, but if you are interested in refreshing your memory as to just how bad the SOEs are, consider the instalment of this column published on August 20, which was titled ‘SOEs are growth-negative contributors to SA economy’.

The companies that are in distress are the ‘big guns’, if you will. The real bloodbath will be the liquidations and insolvencies of small, medium-sized and microenterprises. By the time you read this column, Statistics South Africa would have published its ‘Statistics of Liquidations and Insolvencies, April 2020’, on May 25. The general consensus, if such were sought, would be for the South African economy to, as the airlines have done, assume the brace position for impact. It should brace itself for a wave of liquidations and insolvencies.

If you consider all that you have read to be the dark cloud, and you are in desperate need of a silver lining, well, then you might find such solace in the demotivation poster of Momentum. The poster depicts a person with the face firmly planted in the sand as you can only achieve on the beach when your feet get taken from under you. Just below the word ‘Momentum’ is the punchline: “Falling on your face is still moving forward.”