Africa Central Banks set to usher in wave of rate cuts as year ends
A wave of African central banks is set to cut interest rates at their final policy meetings of the year as inflation eases, a move that could reinvigorate economic growth.
Major central banks in Egypt, Ghana, Angola, South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria will announce policy decisions in the coming weeks, along with smaller economies such as Lesotho, Namibia and Botswana.
“We expect the year to end with further loosening across the board,” said Jacques Nel, head of Africa Macro at Oxford Economics, adding that rate cuts are likely to extend into 2026, particularly in Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria.
For a calendar of forthcoming interest-rate rate decisions in Africa, click here.
Emerging-market assets have been among the biggest winners this year, lifted by dollar weakness fuelled by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a doveish shift from the Federal Reserve and retreating oil prices that’s helped to ease inflation. Across Africa, the surge in consumer prices that forced high interest rates is finally abating, allowing central banks to shift their focus toward reviving economic growth
The improving backdrop has emboldened several countries, including Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, to cut interest rates for the first time in years — and is likely to allow others to extend their easing cycles.
In Ghana, where annual inflation has cooled to a more than four-year low, policymakers are expected to cut borrowing costs for a third straight meeting — by 325 basis points to 18.25% — after a surprise 350-point reduction in September.
A windfall from cocoa and gold exports has strengthened the government’s balance sheet and powered a 34% rally in the cedi against the dollar, making it one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year among those tracked by Bloomberg.
Kenya’s monetary policy committee is also poised to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 9% - extending its longest uninterrupted easing cycle on record.
“Ghana and Kenya have enjoyed favourable macroeconomic releases of late, including benign inflation,” Nel said. “The Ghanaian central bank will be eager to support the country’s economic recovery, while an easing in cost of living pressures will be welcomed in Kenya.”
Major African oil producers Nigeria and Angola, which cut key interest rates in September for the first time in years, may do so again.
“The Nigerian central bank has been pretty prudent, but easing inflation and a stronger naira have given it room to let loose,” Nel said.
Angola’s annual inflation slowed sharply to 17.4% in October from 18.2% a month earlier. “This reinforces our outlook for more aggressive rate cuts by the Banco Nacional de Angola over the next 12 months,” Rand Merchant Bank analysts Precious Dube and Sam Singh-Jami said. Another 50-basis-point reduction is expected at Tuesday’s meeting, bringing the policy rate to 18.5%, they said.
Investors’ main focus will be on Africa’s two largest economies — South Africa and Egypt — whose rate decisions are due Thursday. South Africa’s National Treasury last week formally adopted the Reserve Bank’s new 3% inflation target in its medium-term budget, while Egypt saw an unexpected pickup in rent-driven inflation.
Most economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast South Africa’s MPC to resume its easing cycle with a 25-basis-point cut to 6.75%. The Treasury’s endorsement gives “strength to the signal” that the country is moving toward a lower inflation norm, Keabetswe Mojapelo, macroeconomist at RMB, said. “That alignment should help guide expectations down over time and increase the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut.”
Economists are less certain about Egypt’s next move after the inflation surprise. Four of seven surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 100-basis-point reduction to 20%, while the rest anticipate a hold.
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