International data and analytics company GlobalData has reported that African production of platinum group metals (PGMs) is expected to fall by 6.4% this year, in year-on-year terms. This forecast is contained in the company’s 'Africa Mining Review – 2025' report. However, output is expected to grow again, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4%, from this year until 2030, to reach 5.12-million ounces in that year.

“African platinum mining is facing a tough year as operational constraints and adverse weather impact productivity,” pointed out GlobalData senior mining analyst Gayathyri Siripurapu. “South Africa’s platinum sector is resilient but heavily reliant on infrastructure upgrades, energy reliability, and innovation. Additionally, the sector faces illegal mining and crime issues, and limited exploration investment, which constrain long-term growth potential. Although production will decline in the short term, investment in mechanisation and [economic, social and governance] initiatives is expected to stabilise long-term growth in the region.”

The expectation is that African PGM production will total 4.77-million ounces this year, compared with 5.1-million ounces last year. This decline will be due to problems and challenges in South Africa, which produces more than 80% of the world’s PGMs. These issues include power shortages, rising costs, extreme weather, operational inefficiencies and regulatory uncertainty.

However, new projects will boost South African output in the future. In particular, the $1-billion Waterberg project is forecast to have an annual production of 222 000 oz, from 2029.

Meanwhile, GlobalData noted, Zimbabwe, which holds the world’s second-largest PGM reserves, is becoming a growing hub for the supply of platinum. Major producers such as Valterra Platinum (previously Anglo American Platinum) and Impala Platinum are investing in the country. This should expand production capacity in the country. The Mupani project and the Karo platinum project are together forecast to add 616 200 oz in annual production capacity. Further, initiatives to beneficiate PGMs in Zimbabwe are attracting foreign investors. The country’s platinum output is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 2.9%, to reach 616 200 oz in 2030.

“Zimbabwe’s government policies and geological advantage are creating opportunities for growth,” highlighted Siripurapu. “Its ability to attract capital and deliver value-added PGM products could help diversify Africa’s platinum supply chain and ease South Africa’s production risk.”