Steel producer ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) has announced that it will close its long-products business in a move that will affect 3 500 direct and indirect jobs and which is likely to have significant socioeconomic implications for the Newcastle region of KwaZulu-Natal.

Production at the Newcastle Works, which has been operating under the threat of closure since late 2023, is anticipated to cease by late January 2025, with the wind-down of the remaining production processes completed in the first quarter of the year.

The wind down will also affect the Vereeniging Works, in Gauteng, and the ArcelorMittal Rail and Structural unit, which is located at the old Highveld Steel facility, in Mpumalanga.

Newcastle’s coke-making operations will continue, but will be scaled back to reflect reduced demand.

A formal Section 189(3) labour consultation process is being initiated and AMSA indicates that the wind down costs will be about R2.7-billion, incorporating asset impairments and severance charges.

CEO Kobus Verster expressed “deep regret” over the decision, but said it was made because the structural challenges facing the longs business could not be resolved as envisaged when AMSA reversed an earlier wind-down decision in February last year.

These included weak economic growth, high logistics and energy costs, and an influx of low-cost steel imports, particularly from China, where hot rolled coil and rebar prices retreated to below $500/t in the fourth quarter and from where exports rose to record levels.

The Newcastle Works, which uses blast-furnace technology to convert iron-ore to steel, is also facing stiff competition from scrap-based steelmakers, whose competitiveness has been bolstered in recent years by a price preference system (PPS) for scrap metal and an export tax on scrap.

Under the PPS and export tax, operators of electric arc furnaces, which mostly produce long products, are estimated to be buying in scrap metal at a discount of about 20%, which translates to between R1 000/t and R1 500/t.

Proponents of the scheme argued that the scrap policy has resulted in a cost-based pricing model for long steel, however, and that the scrap benefit enjoyed by the mini mills is being passed on to consumers.

Amid persistently weak market conditions and competition from mini mills, AMSA reduced the operation of its blast furnace operations at the Newcastle Works to the lowest level technically possible last year, resulting in an asset utilisation in the longs business of only 50%.

“Despite extensive consultations with government and stakeholders to find viable solutions to sustain the longs business, progress was insufficient to avert the wind down,” Verster said.

The South African steel industry, he added, was facing its greatest sustained challenge since the 2008/9 financial crisis; a point also raised at the inaugural sectoral engagement convened by the Steel and Engineering Federation of Southern Africa and the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition in November.

At the meeting stakeholders reportedly agreed that radical interventions were required to address the decline in the steel and engineering value chain.

Meanwhile, AMSA also issued a profit warning ahead of the release of its financial results for 2024, scheduled for February 6.

Earnings a share are expected to decrease to a loss within a range of R5.48/share to R6.21/share, compared with the previous year's loss of R3.52/share. Headline earnings a share are projected to decline to a loss between R4.06/share and R4.41/share, from the previous year's loss of R1.70.

Revenue for 2024 is expected to decline by more than 5% compared to 2023, driven by weaker net realised prices, reduced asset utilisation, and the challenges in the longs business.

Nevertheless, Verster stressed the JSE-listed group’s commitment to long-term sustainability and competitiveness of its flats business.

“ArcelorMittal South Africa will focus on re-establishing itself as a champion of innovative, export-driven, steel-based industrialisation for South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and other key geographies.

“This includes advancing the bankability of high-payback investment opportunities to support downstream industries like automotive, renewable energy, mining, and infrastructure; and affecting a recapitalisation of the business to improve the balance sheet and support these investments.”