Have you seen any mention of the publication of the International Monetary Forum’s (IMF’s) 2018 Article IV consultation with South Africa? From what I have seen, it was released through a notice from the National Treasury on July 30. Have you seen any mention of this in the South African financial media?

Reading through the 117-page staff report reminded me of the memorable interaction between Colonel Nathan R Jessup and Lieutenant Junior Grade JG Daniel Kaffee, which, you might say, was adjudicated by Judge (Colonel) Julius A Randolph in the 1992 courtroom drama, A Few Good Men.

Judge (Colonel) Randolph: “You don’t have to answer that question!”

Colonel Jessup:” I’ll answer the question!” (to Lieutenant Kaffee)

“You want answers?”

Lieutenant Kaffee: “I think I’m entitled to.”

Colonel Jessep: “You want answers?”

Lieutenant Kaffee: “I want the truth”

Colonel Jessup: “You can’t handle the truth.”

So, can you handle the truth? Deciding whether you can indeed handle the truth is something you might well not be given an opportunity to do. In such an instance, you might well want to trust your own economic insights. You do have economic insights, even without having any formal economic schooling.

The staff report was the culmination of 15 days of consultations that took place between May 28 and June 11. The report’s introduction states: “As part of its surveillance mandate prescribed in the IMF’s articles of agreements, the IMF visits each of its member countries annually to conduct an economic and financial assessment of government policies and provides policy recommendations. During the consultation, the IMF met with various stakeholders, including government, State-owned enterprises (SOEs), business, organised labour and academia.”

When I reflect on my life experiences, there are few events that resonate with me more than the life lesson I learned as economist from the chief economist of the National Chamber of Business. Whenever he was presented with a report, he would first read the introduction, followed by the summary. If these two parts of the report did not convey its full extent, capturing its essence, then your report would have failed.

The IMF’s ‘conclusion’ is: “South Africa is a diverse and vibrant democracy, where consultation and collaboration [are] highly valued. Although this does at times affect the speed of policy implementation, raising the level of potential growth is the most important objective for the authorities in the medium term. They will continue to work towards attracting investment and rebuilding confidence, while stabilising public finances and placing public debt on a sustainable path. They consider that inflation targeting and a free-floating exchange rate [to be] vital tools in the policy arsenal and will continue to protect these buffers.”

Do you consider this an economic and financial assessment of government policies, and does it provide policy recommenda- tions? Does it offer any insights or are what it conveys merely observations?

Interestingly, the two current economic topics either did not feature in the report at all or were mentioned only thrice. The April 16 Presidential announcement of South Africa’s intention to raise R1-trillion in investment over five years received no mention at all, while land expropriation without compensation, announced on March 14, received only three mentions. One would have expected that both would receive considerable attention.

Although the report is replete with references to SOEs, none of the mentions are in the ‘Conclusion’. Is this a case of there are none so blind as those who will not see? Or is there another explanation?

I am reminded of Lieutenant Kaffee’s observation, less famous than the earlier quote: “Should we or should we not follow the advice of the galactically stupid?”

Just in case you missed it, as I admittedly did on first reading it, ‘galactically stupid’ is when something obvious is not recognised by someone who sees that obvious thing on a regular basis. Think of Lois Lane, Clark Kent’s supposed love interest, who never recognises him as Superman.