By: Jakkie Cilliers and Alize le Roux  - of the Institute for Security Studies

Here are two facts that, together, make no sense.

1. More than 630 million Africans have no access to electricity.

2. The continent exports about half of its oil and gas production.

African countries are in effect supplying the rest of the world with energy, while their own citizens cannot heat their homes, light their streets, or power their schools. The situation will only worsen, given rapid population growth, rising incomes, and increasing urbanisation.

Modelling by the Institute for Security Studies African Futures (AFI-ISS) team shows that, as domestic energy use surges, the continent will likely become a net energy importer before 2040, reversing its long‑standing role as a net exporter. This shift comes against a backdrop of underdeveloped supply systems, heavy dependence on fossil fuels, and weak national and regional grids.

Africa’s cities lie at the heart of this unfolding story. Rapid urbanisation means more Africans than ever now live in cities. A billion of us will do so by 2038. The engines of development, cities also face unique energy pressures: from powering transportation and industry to providing basic services. The continent’s development trajectory will depend in large part on how well its cities meet these pressures.

With our African Futures programme work, we have been exploring multiple scenarios for the continent’s energy future. In doing so, we looked at three scenarios. We looked at what 2063 might look like if we stayed on the Current Path, in terms of energy demand and production on the continent. Simple answer … nothing good comes of that scenario. Reform across the board is urgent. This led us to the Africa Energy Policy scenario. Using available data, we envision an alternate path in which many countries put policies in place that enable a rapid deployment of renewable energy technologies, achieve greater levels of efficiencies, and a managed transition away from fossil fuels. It would not be easily done, but it would set the continent on a different trajectory. In an ideal world, Africa could go even further: via the Sustainable Africa scenario. In this scenario, renewables generation (encompassing solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass) expands rapidly. Again, efficiency improves, and carbon intensity falls, even as per-capita consumption rises in line with development goals. It is the holy grail of Africa and the world’s energy future. This is what cities across the continent should ultimately be striving for.

Recent studies have highlighted the profound energy implications related to the shape and structure of African cities. Detailed analysis of building footprints and urban form reveals that, as cities double in population, energy demand for commuting triples in Africa. The reasons are obvious: greater sprawl and lower density increase travel distances, plus transport in any city consumes a disproportionate share of energy. For example, transport accounts for 27% of South Africa’s and 37% of Brazil’s total energy use, according to the 2024 IEA World Energy Balances and Renewables report. A sizable chunk of this consumption is in urban areas. Clearly, urban planning is a key part of the energy puzzle. Compact, connected, higher‑density cities can reduce the energy demand of urban mobility systems. Policymakers must take note of this.

For Africa’s burgeoning urban population, energy access is not a luxury. It is essential for everyday life. A stable energy supply powers hospitals, schools, businesses, and the digital infrastructure that drives modern economies. Conversely, energy poverty deepens inequality. It disrupts education, harms public health, and disproportionately affects women and children, who bear the burdens of traditional fuel use. The prevalence of informal settlements across the continent (often outside formal grid coverage) amplifies this divide, limiting access to modern cooking, lighting, and cooling, and ultimately leading to negative health outcomes for entire populations.

So, what to make of all of this? 

First, we need policies that enable investment in renewable urban generation and micro‑grids. A rapid scaling of renewables, accompanied by a boost in storage capacity and mini‑grids to serve dense urban and peri‑urban communities is needed. Localised systems can be more robust and offer greater resilience.

Policies that support transit‑oriented development, densification, and walkable neighbourhoods should be non-negotiable. Good urban planning can reduce energy use. Africa’s cities need to actively tackle and rein in urban sprawl as they grow.

Africa’s energy transition will be meaningless unless it includes and serves the continent’s poor. Cities are a fertile frontier for fighting poverty and inequality. Access to electricity and affordable, sustainable energy in general has to be part of any plan to alleviate poverty and build better futures. This can take many forms, ranging from subsidised solar installations, “pay‑as‑you‑go” systems, or “cash‑for‑power” programmes. Cape Town has introduced a promising model that allows rooftop solar producers to sell excess energy back to the municipal grid. More experiments like this are needed.

However, policies alone are not enough. We need better energy governance. Greater effort and investment are needed to build local research hubs with the capacity to collect and analyse data, and then deploy insights in a timely fashion. These hubs could be the backbone of cities and give metro governments the capacity to develop the tools necessary to model demand, plan investments, monitor equity of access, and integrate energy with climate and spatial planning.

Lastly, it is essential that cities integrate climate resilience into their energy planning. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts such as heatwaves, flooding, water stress, and related health risks. Energy systems must therefore not only be low‐carbon, but also resilient to extreme weather. Strategies such as urban greening, efficient cooling, and decentralised service clusters can help build resilience.

Africa’s cities should not merely see themselves as potential beneficiaries of a coming energy transition. Instead, they should position themselves as the critical actors they are, and seize a key part in shaping it.

How cities structure their development, generate and distribute energy, plan and design their transport corridors and built environments, and prioritise inclusive access, will determine whether urbanisation becomes a developmental asset or a source of greater inequality and insecurity across the continent.

The path ahead demands foresight, political leadership, and urban vision. African cities can lead the transition, paving the way toward a sustainable, equitable future for the continent.