Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is set to soar in the coming years, with more than 100-million passenger EVs expected on the roads by 2026, and more than 700-million by 2040.

This is a significant increase from the 27-million units recorded at the beginning of this year.

This is according to research company BloombergNEF’s (BNEF’s) latest yearly long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) report. 

Electrification is now spreading quickly to all sectors of road transport, from rickshaws to heavy trucks, and is also picking up in emerging economies like India, Thailand and Indonesia.

As momentum grows, new economic opportunities are taking shape, notes the report.

The document also notes that EV sales are set to rise sharply. 

In the Economic Transition Scenario – BNEF’s base-case scenario which assumes no new policies are implemented – passenger EV sales will rise from 10.5-million units in 2022, to 22-million in 2025 (26% of sales), 42-million in 2030 (44% of sales) and 75-million in 2040 (75% of sales). 

Some countries will move much faster, including the Nordics, China, Germany, South Korea, France and the UK. 

By 2030, there will be 244-million EVs on the road, rising to 731-million by 2040 (46% of the fleet). 

The cumulative value of EV sales across all segments will hit $8.8-trillion by 2030 and $57-trillion by 2050 in BNEF’s base-case Economic Transition Scenario.

“EVs and batteries are now a central part of many countries’ industrial policy and competition to attract investment will increase in the coming years,” says the EVO.

“Direct electrification via batteries is the most efficient, cost-effective and commercially available route to fully decarbonising road transport,” says BloombergNEF EV head Aleksandra O’Donovan.

“Still, a stronger push is needed on areas like heavy trucking, charging infrastructure and raw material supply.”

ICE Sales in Decline
The EVO report also found that oil demand from road transport was very near its peak. 

The rise of EVs will lead to a peak in overall road fuel demand in 2027. 

Demand in the US and Europe has already peaked, while demand in China is set to peak next year.

Sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles reached its apex in 2017 and are now in long-term decline.