Falling alumina price prods some China producers to begin maintenance
Chinese alumina producers, which rushed to expand capacity after prices surged last year due to short supplies of raw material bauxite, are being squeezed by falling prices, prompting some to shut capacity for maintenance in April, industry watchers said.
The alumina price SAOc1 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has fallen by nearly half since its December 4 record, weighed down by expanded capacity for the key aluminium-making ingredient and as bauxite's supply tightness eases.
China's alumina capacity is expected to increase this year by 20%, or 19.8 million metric tons, according to information provider Mysteel. Around 60% of existing capacity is operating at a loss averaging 300 yuan ($40.82) per ton, Mysteel data showed.
Losses have led to some small-scale maintenance in April, which will reduce alumina production by around 5% compared to March, research firm Aladin said, mostly in Shanxi and Shandong provinces, where insufficient local bauxite supply means producers need costlier imports.
China's alumina output rose 1% in April 2024 from March, according to Mysteel.
Still, large-scale capacity cutbacks are unlikely this year as alumina refineries rely on long-term sales contracts with aluminium smelters, analysts and traders said.
“If we start maintenance to cut production, our long-term contract customers will find another supplier, and our credibility will be impaired," a trader with a mid-sized alumina refinery said, declining to be named as they were not authorised to speak with media.
Meanwhile, increased bauxite supply is putting downward pressure on alumina prices.
Bauxite imports to China rose 26% annually in the first two months this year, customs data showed. Planned bauxite output expansion this year in Guinea and Australia totalling 40 million tons would more than offset the 14 million tons lost from Guinea Alumina Corp's suspension of bauxite exports last year, Zijin Tianfeng Futures said.
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