Saying goodbye to another decade is always emotional, but it is also a time to refresh, revisit strategies and plan new ones “to boldly go”.

Across Africa, the trend of the past decade, and what will define the ‘twenties’, is what former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf described as “the triple transition: building national identities, democracies and market economies”.

Where countries perform in this transition will define their success. Angola looks set to join Ethiopia, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya as the country of most interest in 2020 as it launches the largest business and economic change since independence, privatising up to 195 companies, including flagship State-owned entities: the national airline, mineral resources, oil and diamonds. In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed crowned the decade with a Nobel Peace Prize for ending a 20-year conflict. His economic reforms have seen growth of about 8%, which is set to continue. Investors eagerly await the liberalisation of telecoms, financial services and the exchange rate. However, Abiy’s social reforms have unleashed ethnic divisions, violence and displacement. Part of his reform programme is the Presidential election in May.

Similarly, Angola’s local elections in late 2020 will ratify plans to grant 18 provinces regional autonomy and a devolved budget, but will also test President Joao Lourenço’s new political and economic order. Angola’s transition has already caused social turmoil – soaring inflation and low oil output have forced austerity measures.

Ghana and Kenya continue to present well-diversified economies with deepening capital markets to entice foreign and local investors. The award of a fifth-generation licence will dominate 2020, as will Safaricom’s market dominance. Kenya’s business environment retains its reputation as one of Africa’s most corrupt: an Italian dam construction company paid millions in bribes to senior officials. The Finance Minister, who oversaw the contracts, was arrested, but Kenyans don’t expect him to face prosecution. However, it has led to proposals to ban serving officials from engaging in business activities.

Ghana is another corruption-plagued African economic success story. Nevertheless, President Nana Akufo-Addo has much to celebrate as he enters an election year. He has overseen over 6% average economic growth, the lowest inflation in at least six years and a growing oil industry. Ghana recorded ground-breaking achievements in oil, gold and cocoa – all economic mainstays. The country’s greatest challenge for 2020 will be translating positive economic growth into real-life improvements for its largely under-20 population.

Several countries’ transitions have stalled or reversed. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy in gross domestic product (GDP) terms, boasts the continent’s largest population but has no coherent political or economic policy. President Muhammadu Buhari has signed up to the African Continental Free Trade area and agreed to introduce visa-free travel for Africans, while simultaneously closing several land borders to regional trade.

In Tanzania, the political, social and economic environment under President John Magufuli deteriorated in 2019 – and the negative trend will continue. The greatest threat comes from government: targeting foreign investors for arbitrary nationalistic expropriation and ad hoc tax demands. Magufuli has crushed dissent and freedom of information. The real impact of disinvestment will become apparent at street level this year, but suppression means Magufuli will win elections set for October.

Similarly, Zimbabwe’s political, economic and social recidivism to policies seen under Robert Mugabe has witnessed a return of hyperinflation (440% in November) and wholesale economic informalisation.

Rebuilding economic resilience will be 2020’s theme, just as debt management is again subject to international tussles for political influence – involving China, the US, the European Union (EU) and Russia. Public debt has doubled, with 24 countries exceeding the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) recommended 55% debt-to-GDP ratio. The IMF has resurged after a decade of countries seeking mainly Chinese support. Although Chinese lending and construction companies completed infrastructure projects that unlocked African growth, they brought back many bad predemocracy habits common in the 1980s: China agreed loans with Presidents and Prime Ministers directly. Loan terms (and personal benefit for individuals) were kept secret. The IMF agreed a $449-million bail-out for the Republic of Congo to reschedule Chinese debt after its domestic debt ballooned to 118% of GDP. Several countries – including some whose previous debts were cancelled under the 2001–2006 Heavily Indebted Poor Country programme – are again on IMF programmes.

Russia has returned to Africa with a strategy to strong-arm the US, France and the UK out, building relations at Presidential level, selling arms and providing mercenary and other support in 13 African countries – mainly conflict zones where Western intervention has left a vacuum or in countries under Western sanctions. Other targets include areas where Africa and Russia compete. Mozambique’s $20-billion Total-led Area 1 Mozambique liquefied natural gas project is one. Russian firms’ plans to increase their involvement in Nigeria have lifted an otherwise gloomy business environment. However, since Russia’s moves are largely prompted by US and EU sanctions, association with these firms carries risks.

Developing resilience to climate change will take hold across Africa in 2020 as governments and companies grapple with climate change events. In March, tropical cyclone Idai blasted Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, killing over 1 300 people. In December, rains failed in Zimbabwe and Mozambique, and drought set in. Natural disasters are more frequent and less predictable and have broader impact. This has forced countries and corporates to look at ways to plan for and counter the effects on communities, the economy and business. For most governments in Africa, the approach has been climate action such as reforesting and banning plastic bags, rather than planning for disasters and investing in climate-response capacity and resilience. For global corporate boards, ‘climate competence’ is expected to become a reportable issue within two years and will require people with the skills and ability to incorporate climate risk planning into risk management templates.