The Covid-19 crisis is expected to wipe out 6.7% of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020 – equivalent to 195-million full-time workers, says United Nations Agency, the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

Large reductions are foreseen in the Arab States (8.1%, equivalent to 5-million full- time workers), Europe (7.8%, or 12-million full-time workers) and Asia and the Pacific (7.2%, 125-million full-time workers).

Huge losses are expected across different income groups, but especially in upper-middle income countries (7%, 100-million full-time workers). 

This far exceeds the effects of the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis, says the ILO.

The sectors most at risk include accommodation and food services, manufacturing, retail, and business and administrative activities.

The eventual increase in global unemployment during 2020 will depend substantially on future developments and policy measures, notes the ILO.

There is a high risk that the end-of-year job loss figure will be significantly higher than the initial ILO projection of 25-million.

More than four out of five people (81%) in the global workforce of 3.3-billion people are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures.

“Workers and businesses are facing catastrophe, in both developed and developing economies,” says ILO director-general Guy Ryder. 

”We have to move fast, decisively, and together. The right, urgent measures could make the difference between survival and collapse.”

The second edition of the ILO Monitor on Covid-19 describes the disease as “the worst global crisis since World War II”.

According to the new study, 1.25-billion workers are employed in the sectors identified as being at high risk of “drastic and devastating” increases in layoffs and a reduction in wages and work hours. 

Many are in low-paid, low-skilled jobs, where a sudden loss of income is devastating.

Looked at regionally, the proportion of workers in these at-risk sectors varies from 43% in the Americas to 26% in Africa. 

Some regions, particularly Africa, have higher levels of informality, which, combined with a lack of social protection, high population density and weak capacity, pose severe health and economic challenges for governments, the study cautions.

Worldwide, two-billion people work in the informal sector (mostly in emerging and developing economies) and are particularly at risk.

The ILO says large-scale, integrated policy measures are needed, focusing on four pillars: supporting enterprises, employment and incomes; stimulating the economy and jobs; protecting workers in the workplace; and, using social dialogue between government, workers and employers to find solutions.

“This is the greatest test for international cooperation in more than 75 years,” says Ryder. 

“If one country fails, then we all fail. We must find solutions that help all segments of our global society, particularly those that are most vulnerable or least able to help themselves.”