Lithium producers stay bullish on EVs despite growing headwinds
The world's largest lithium producers say they remain bullish on long-term demand for the battery material in the midst of recent price drops fueled by growing worries that the global pace of electric vehicle adoption is slowing.
LG Energy Solution, General Motors, Honda and other auto and battery makers have trimmed EV expansion plans in recent weeks, partly due to rising interest rates, which in turn has stoked concerns of a supply glut for the battery metal.
A basket of prices for lithium - which vary by region and by type - tracked by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence has dropped more than 60% this year.
While demand for the ultralight battery metal is still expected to rise this year from 2022 levels, investors' expectations for white-hot industry growth were dampened by sluggish quarterly reports from Albemarle, Pilbara Minerals, Livent and others.
In Australia, the world's largest lithium-producing nation, Pilbara Minerals is the most-shorted stock on the Australian Stock Exchange, suggesting investors have a negative view on lithium demand.
The bearish sentiment has affected more than just lithium producers. Lithium Royalty Corp, a lithium investor, has lost more than 37% of its value since listing in Toronto earlier this year. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech has dropped 18% this year.
Chris Berry, an independent lithium analyst and consultant, advises clients to focus on a range of prices for the key battery metal, not just spot, adding that prices today remain far above historical trends.
"While the spot price has cratered, I haven't seen an evaporating of demand which would validate the trajectory of the spot price," Berry said.
In calls with investors and analysts in recent days, lithium producers said they saw the market volatility as short term, adding that they expect electrification to keep growing.
"We see what's happening now as road bumps, but certainly not a determinant for the long-term growth we have," Eric Norris, head of Albemarle's Energy Storage division, told investors on Thursday after the company cut its annual forecast and reported disappointing quarterly results.
Livent, which supplies BMW and Tesla said it continues to expect strong lithium sales despite its own weak results. "We see (lithium) supply continuing to be the constraint on demand," said Livent CEO Paul Graves.
Pilbara last week flagged a "softening market backdrop" and ruled out share buybacks or special dividends for shareholders. Still, executives said that decision was born from a desire to be cautious for the time being.
"Demand is absolutely there," said Pilbara CEO Dale Henderson. "It's just a case of moderating pricing. It's still a very healthy market."
Mineral Resources, which operates lithium mines with Albemarle and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium, described the market's current state as a "rebalancing" of supply chains.
And IGO, which holds a stake in a joint venture that controls Greenbushes, the world's largest lithium mine, warned of ongoing market volatility earlier this week, but added it believed the industry's troubles were only "near term".
Comments
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation