It’s nine o’clock on a Saturday. The regular crowd shuffles in.”

It really is, only the crowd is not that regular and it does not only shuffle in, but also out. There is more of the latter, as, after an hour and a half, Billy Joel has yet to sing any of his number one hit singles. Instead, he is opting to play his more recent and lesser-known compositions. But even more frustrating, every song is interrupted by a short rendition of a British number one single. This, seemingly, in an effort to pacify members of the audience, who have made a significant sacrifice, financial and otherwise, to attend the music concert.

Surprisingly, the venue of the concert is the Old Trafford football stadium, which is the home of Manchester United Football Club and is steeped in history. I say ‘surprisingly’ because the last time the stadium hosted a music concert was in the late 1980s, when Phil Collins performed there. Even The Rolling Stones could not secure the venue for the most recent of their world tours.

As I contemplate whether to shuffle out of the stadium or to stay put – in the (fading) hope that the rendition of a number one hit will follow – my thoughts wander off and I start to think about the difference between Billy Joel and Manchester United. Yes, comparing a person to a football team.

The thing with Manchester United is that it has had to, and continue to, reinvent itself, even though it remains the most valuable football club in Europe. This is because, if it does not do so, it will, without question, be relegated.

But Billy Joel relies on the nostalgia of his ageing audience, who, he hopes, may introduce their children to his music. With- out disrespecting his musical talents, one may consider him an ‘artist of past glories’.

All this made me think of South Africa: is it a Billy Joel or a Manchester United? Is it either of the two or a combination of both?

South Africa is a country that attained its present international standing because of its past – distant past – economic performance. Once upon a time, the South African economy was in a league of its own on the African continent. The country was Africa’s undisputed economic champion. South Africa is currently a member of the G20. It is the only African country that is represented in that body. Should it be? If I were a Nigerian or Egyptian national, I would be aggrieved, as both these countries boast stronger and faster-growing economies.

Considering the current state of the South African economy, it is impossible to see how it will regain its economic composure, not to even talk about growing it. While there might well have been a redistribution of resources and wealth in South African in recent years, this has not created any real benefit for the economy. Wealth has not been, and is simply not being, created.

There is an undeniable similarity between Billy Joel and South Africa. Both are living in the past. Contrary to Timbuk 3’s 1980s hit, it is not that “The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades”, but rather that “The Past’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades.”

As I predicted in last week’s column, Fitch Ratings retained its credit rating of South Africa; but it did not stop there – it raised its South African growth forecast for 2018 from 1.6% to 1.7% and for 2019 from 2% to 2.4%.

Yet, barely a week later, South Africa found itself in the throes of load-shedding, while the shenanigans at State-owned enterprises persist and its recent past become even more apparent. Who would have expected that? Well, those that understand South Africa.

South Africa is a Billy Joel. It trades more on its past than it is willing to commit to the future, and it appeases and distracts by singing the songs of others.