I can’t believe the news today (January 6); oh, I can’t close my eyes and make it go away. How long, how long must we sing this song? How long? How long?” – to borrow the opening lyrics of Irish rock band U2’s Sunday Bloody Sunday. For good measure, I should add: “And the battle’s just begun; there’s many lost, but tell me who has won?”

Truth be told, the news of January 6 was not totally unexpected; we had been forewarned as early as November 2023, when it was first announced. What happened to the adage, “forewarned is forearmed”?

And then it happened – the announcement. The announcement? As the headline implies, it relates to metals – iron and steel. The question is whether the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (dtic), which is tasked with developing the South African economy, will show its mettle, or if there is an element of metal fatigue. Perhaps metal fatigue is more fitting for the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (Itac), whose core functions include customs tariff investigations (in the form of tariff protection), trade remedy investigations (safeguards and dumping), and import and export control – all of which are synonymous with South Africa’s metals industry.

On February 23, 2024, Itac initiated a safeguard investigation against increased imports of hot-rolled steel products (on July 12, there was an invitation to a public hearing). On December 27, 2024, another safeguard investigation was initiated against increased imports of flat-rolled products made of iron or non-alloy steel, with a width of 600 mm or more, that are clad, plated or coated with aluminium-zinc alloys of less than 0.45 mm thickness, as well as flat-rolled products made of other alloy steel with a width of 600 mm or more, plated or coated with zinc, of a thickness of less than 0.45mm (referred to as ‘corrosion resistant steel coils’). Comments on this investigation close on February 25, 2025. Additionally, on December 15, 2024, the South African Revenue Service announced an amendment to safeguard items, extending safeguard duties to imports originating in or from the Philippines, specifically on threaded fasteners of iron or steel.

On September 20, 2024, Itac initiated an investigation into the alleged dumping of certain flat-rolled products of iron, non- alloy or alloy steel with a width of 600mm or more (whether or not in coils) and not further worked than hot-rolled, including pickled and oiled, hot-rolled, not clad, plated or coated (excluding stainless and grain- oriented silicon electrical steel), originating in or imported from China, Japan and Taiwan.

On September 20, 2024, Itac initiated an investigation into the alleged dumping of U-sections, I-sections and H-sections of iron or non-alloy steel not further worked than hot-rolled, hot-drawn, or extruded, of a height of 80 mm or more (excluding H-sections of a height greater than 200 mm) and equal angles of iron or non-alloy steel, not further worked than hot-rolled, hot-drawn, or extruded, originating in or imported from China and the Kingdom of Thailand.

On May 24, 2024, Itac applied for an increase in the ‘General’ rate of customs duty on conical steel drums, of steel, with a capacity of 210 ℓ or more but not exceeding 234 ℓ. On July 19, 2024, the commission submitted another application, this time for the creation of a temporary rebate provision of the full customs duty for the importation of tubes, pipes, hollow profiles, and other welded, circular cross- sections of stainless steel. On August 23, 2024, it applied for an increase in the ‘General’ rate of customs duty on rails.

Are you feeling metal fatigue yet?

In its statement on January 6, the dtic noted “with serious concern the announcement by ArcelorMittal South Africa to wind down its longs steel business at its Newcastle plant”. Media reports indicated that 3 500 jobs are expected to be lost at the company’s operations in Newcastle and Vereeniging when iron and steel production ceases at the end of this month. Will there be a battle? If so, what will it be about? As for Itac, the announcement could cause its workload to be significantly reduced.