Most banks expect gold's bull run to persist into 2025
Major banks expect gold to extend its record-breaking price rally into 2025 because of a revival in large inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of additional interest rate cuts from prominent central banks around the world, including the USFederal Reserve.
"Strong physical demand from China and central banks supported gold prices over the past two years, but investor flow, and retail-focused ETF builds in particular, continue to hold the key to a further sustained rally over the upcoming Fed cutting cycle," analysts at JP Morgan said in a note on Monday.
Non-yielding gold has gained nearly $570 an ounce, or over 27%, so far this year, putting it on track for its biggest annual rise since 2010 and positioning itself as one of the standout assets of 2024. The precious metal hit a record high of $2 639.95/oz earlier on Tuesday and has notched record highs several times this year.
"Despite reaching multiple highs this year and outperforming major stock indices, we believe gold has more room to run over the next six to 12 months," analysts at UBS said in a note last month, adding that "key factors in our view include a revival of large inflows to exchange traded funds (ETFs) - something that has been missing since April 2022."
The Fed began its easing cycle last week with a half-percentage-point rate cut, and forecast another 50 basis points of cuts by the end of this year and a full percentage point of cuts next year.
Zero-yielding bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a low interest rate environment and during geopolitical turmoil.
The November 5 US Presidential election could also boost gold prices further as potential market volatility may drive investors towards safe-haven gold, analysts said.
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2024 and 2025 prices for gold (in $ per ounce):
| Brokerage/Agency |
Price forecast 2024 |
Price forecast 2025 | Price Targets |
| Commerzbank | $2 600 | $2 600 | $2 600 for mid-2025 |
| ANZ | $2 394 | $2805 | $2 900 by end-2025 |
| Macquarie | $2 339 | $2 463 | Q1, 2025 peak of $2 600/oz with potential for spike towards $3 300/oz |
| Goldman Sachs | - | - | $2 700 by early-2025 |
| UBS | - | - | $2 700 by mid-2025 |
| BofA | $2 365 | $2 775 | Scope for gold to hit $3 000/oz |
| JP Morgan | $2 398 | $2 775 | $2 850 |
| Citi Research | $2 360 | $2 875 |
Baseline average price projections of |
Comments
Research Reports
Projects
Latest News
Showroom
At John Ratcliffe, we are aftermarket specialists for heavy-duty on and off-road vehicles. We engineer and retrofit advanced safety systems, engine...
VISIT SHOWROOM
ISO-certified Condra manufactures overhead cranes, portal cranes, cantilever cranes and crane components: hoists, drives, end-carriages, brakes and...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
