The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will be a critical test for the implementation of the COP28 pledge, made by nearly 200 countries in the United Arab Emirates last year, of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

This finding is contained in a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report, titled ‘From Taking Stock to Taking Action: How to implement the COP28 energy goals’, which was released this week during the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The report concludes that favourable economics, ample manufacturing potential and strong policies have made the tripling goal feasible, but not automatic.

Countries would also need to make a concerted push to build and modernise 25-million kilometres of electricity grids by 2030, add 1 500 GW of energy storage capacity by 2030, (including a 15-fold, or 1 200 GW, increase in battery storage), and accelerate country-specific energy efficiency programmes.

The report states that it will be critical for countries to integrate the ‘UAE Consensus’ into the next round of NDCs, which countries are expected to lodge with the United Nations in 2025.

“[The] COP28 energy goals should lay the foundation for countries’ new climate targets under the Paris Agreement – they are the North Star for what the energy sector needs to do,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said.

If implemented, the COP28 goals would set the foundation for reducing global energy-related emissions by over 60% by 2035, with advanced economies and other high-income countries reducing emissions by 60% to 80% as a group, emerging markets, including China, by 35% to 65%, and developing economies by 5% to 50%.

The IEA report calls for the new NDCs to be economy-wide and entail absolute reduction targets, especially for all major economies.

“All countries should consider in the design of their NDCs how they intend to implement the COP28 goals, not least to send clear signals to investors.”

South Africa’s Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment has promised broad-based consultations on South Africa’s next NDC submission, which will need to accommodate a recent decision to allow Eskom to delay the decommissioning of some of its coal-fired power stations to 2030.

South Africa’s current NDC, which was submitted ahead of COP26 in Glasgow, outlines a yearly carbon-emission range of between 420-million and 350-million tons, which was regarded as sufficiently ambitious to facilitate the $8.5-billion Just Energy Transition Partnership, which has since been enlarged to $11.7-billion.