South Africa has the potential to be the strongest producer, user and exporter of coal on the continent, but political interference prevents this from happening, XMP Consulting senior coal analyst Xavier Prevost has said.

“We are actually not fulfilling our role the way we should and the reason why is simply because we are blocked by politicians that think they're doing what’s best, but they're not,” he told delegates at nonprofit organisation FFF Carbon’s 2024 Middelburg Coal Conference, in Mpumalanga, on October 17.

Numerous coal industry leaders and politicians gathered to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the South African coal industry.

“We have been attacked by what they call the just transition. I don't call it a just transition. I call it an unjust transition because they want to push us in a direction where we can't go because it's illogical and economically unviable,” Prevost chided.

According to him, coal remains an essential component of South Africa’s energy system and, without it, the country would face severe consequences.

“The idea is that we want coal but the government doesn’t. But that's not the case. It's just some politicians in government. The reality is that we still have to mine coal because without it we are going to perish,” he said.

Prevost also pointed to the broader implications of coal’s role in the economy, noting the dependence of many other sectors of the economy on coal, both for electricity and production purposes, such as steel and cement.

“There’s so much interconnection in this country between coal and the rest of the industry that if we take away coal, we take away the life of the country,” he said.

Despite international pressure to move away from coal owing to environmental concerns, Prevost highlighted a rising demand for the resource.

“There is growing demand for coal, in spite of all these warnings that we get that we shouldn’t be mining it and that companies shouldn't be using coal because it’s bad for the environment,” he said, pointing to the global energy crisis as part of the reason for this.

He also pointed out that major manufacturing nations such as China and India continue to ramp up their use of coal, while simultaneously producing renewable-energy products and components.

“The reality is that the bigger producers, China and India, they are introducing lots of coal. And what else do they produce? Renewables. And what do they produce their renewables from? Coal,” he said.

Prevost expressed frustration with the disparity between what South Africa was allowed to do and what other nations were permitted, saying that political interference was undermining the country’s economic potential.

“However, what they do [in India and China], we can't, because we are not allowed to. For us, it is politically incorrect to use coal, but they can use coal and sell renewables. What's the logic of it? They make the money. The ones that are not doing it, they're not making money,” he said.

South Africa’s coal production has been declining, and Prevost attributed this to aging mines and a lack of new projects.

“The country is going down in coal production almost every year. And it's going down in production simply because the mines are getting older and producing less coal. And new coal mines are not coming,” he said.

He added that the reason for the lack of new mines was not a result of a lack of interest but rather a lack of financial support.

Prevost argued that, although ample financing was available, especially from international investors, political interference and a lack of government support were preventing new projects from moving forward.

“The finances are already there. I know many people, especially from India, that are prepared to put money down on mines. They're prepared to buy the mines. They're prepared to become shareholders of the mines, but they need a project that is viable,” he said.

However, he noted that insufficient investment in preliminary ground investigations was stalling these potential coal projects.

“To get to that point, we need to do some investigations in the ground. And that's where the problem lies. There is no money for that,” Prevost said.

Looking to the future, Prevost predicted that coal prices would continue to improve, making coal investments more attractive.

“The forecast for today until 2027 shows that the prices are to become better and better. So we have a future in coal. And we have a future in exporting,” he said. However, he warned that continued political interference could undermine this potential.

In contrast, Prevost pointed to Botswana as an example of a country successfully capitalising on its coal resources. He explained that Botswana's government takes a pragmatic approach to coal mining.

“The Botswana government and the Botswana coal industry is doing exactly the opposite of what South Africa is doing. What they're doing is they – the government – say, ‘If coal is available in Botswana, can we mine it economically and make some money for the companies? Then we want a share of that. We want to get taxes out of that. So because of that, we are going to push the industry in Botswana,’” he said.

Botswana’s government, unlike South Africa’s, has not embraced the energy transition narrative that advocates reducing coal production. Prevost argued that Botswana’s approach benefited both the country’s economy and its citizens.

“They’re doing well for their country. Why? Because the country needs the resources, they need the coal, and they need the money. And what happens to that money? That money goes to make the country better,” he said.

He contrasted this with South Africa’s approach, which he said was allowing neighbouring countries to step in and fill the gap left by declining coal production.

“Botswana is coming up strong, and not just Botswana. All the neighbouring countries that have coal are looking at South Africa and saying, they don’t have enough coal, let's fill the gap,” he said.