A newly released report by technology and lifecycle solutions provider Wärtsilä shows that an area the size of Europe will need to be covered with renewable power to reach a clean energy future without the integration of balancing power technologies.

Wärtsilä’s global power system modelling, published in the ‘Crossroads to net zero’ report, compares two pathways from 2025 to 2050 with the aim of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting global warming in alignment with the Paris Agreement targets.

In the first pathway, only renewable-energy sources, such as wind and solar power, alongside energy storage, are added to the power mix. In the second pathway, balancing power generation technologies, which can be quickly ramped up to support intermittent renewables, are also introduced.

The modelling reveals that a power system incorporating balancing power technologies has significant cost and CO₂ reduction benefits compared with a system relying solely on renewables and storage.

The analysis estimates that the pathway that includes balancing power would result in cumulative savings of €65-trillion by 2050, averaging €2.5-trillion a year, which equates to more than 2% of 2024’s global GDP.

These savings arise from reduced renewable capacity requirements. Additionally, this pathway can reduce cumulative power sector CO₂ emissions by 21% – equivalent to one-billion tonnes – between 2025 and 2050 compared with the renewables-and-storage-only pathway.

The report further highlights that balancing power technologies can significantly reduce wasted energy. It states that using balancing power would result in 88% less energy being curtailed from renewable sources by 2050, avoiding 458 000 TWh of curtailments.

This figure represents enough energy to power the entire world at current electricity consumption levels for more than 15 years. Further, balancing power allows for halving the renewable-energy capacity and land needed to meet decarbonisation targets.

“While we have more renewable energy on our grids than ever before, it is not enough on its own. To achieve a clean energy future, our modelling shows that flexibility is essential. We need to act now to integrate the right levels and types of balancing technologies into our power systems.

“This means rapidly phasing out inflexible assets and transitioning to sustainable fuels. Balancing power plants are not merely important; they are critical in supporting higher levels of renewable energy,” Wärtsilä Energy president and executive VP Anders Lindberg said.

“Morocco [for example] has the ambition of achieving 52% renewable electricity by 2030. However, integrating renewables at this scale poses challenges. Our modelling in Morocco recommends a balanced system with renewables, battery energy storage and flexible power plants, including 60% of grid-balancing engines.

“This combination can optimise renewable integration, reduce fuel costs and ensure reliability to achieve that ambition via a cost-effective, low-emission pathway.

“South Africa has come to the same conclusion: Eskom's recent 3 GW Gas Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme tender for ultra-flexible gas validates the need for this flexible generation identified in our modelling [with] plans to grow renewable capacity to 17.7 GW by 2030,” added Wärtsilä Energy Africa and Europe VP Kenneth Engblom.

The report outlines three main calls to action for the global power sector to achieve a low-cost, low-emission energy transition aligned with the Paris Agreement goals for 2050.

First, the rapid expansion of both renewables and balancing technologies is essential to ensure affordable and reliable electricity. This includes upgrading transmission systems, streamlining permitting processes and investing in regional interconnectors to facilitate renewable growth.

Additionally, mobilising financing for renewable and balancing power projects at the necessary scale is critical.

Second, the report emphasises the need to redesign electricity markets to incentivise flexibility. Reforms should support greater integration of variable renewable energy and balancing power.

Measures include increasing dispatch granularity to five-minute intervals in energy wholesale markets, introducing ancillary services to maintain grid stability, and establishing bankable revenue models for balancing power plants through mechanisms such as flexibility-linked capacity payments and scarcity pricing.

Third, the report calls for selecting future-proof balancing technologies prepared for the introduction of sustainable fuels. It advocates using natural gas as a transitional fuel to enable the rapid ramp-up of renewables and facilitate the phase-out of inflexible technologies.

Such measures could cut yearly power sector CO₂ emissions by more than 75% by 2035 compared with 2023 levels.

To ensure a seamless transition to sustainable fuels, the report recommends building the necessary expertise and infrastructure. while implementing supportive policies such as subsidies, regulations or carbon taxes to achieve cost parity.