South Africa, Namibia and Angola retained their rankings in the fourth issue of Standard Bank’s Africa Trade Barometer (SB ATB) at positions one, two and ten, respectively.

The ATB trade attractiveness rankings reveal a dynamic shift in trade standings among the ten African nations it covers.

Improvements were seen in Tanzania moving from eight to four, Mozambique from four to three, Nigeria from six to five and Zambia from nine to eight.

Tanzania's rise in the rankings was boosted by the country’s considerable investments in infrastructure and better access to finance, enabling businesses to engage more actively in cross-border trade, the report shows

Declines were recorded for Ghana from three to seven, Uganda from seven to nine, and Kenya from five to six.

Ghana’s sharp decline shows the pressures that the economy continues to endure, the report indicates.

It is also said to raise concerns about the country’s ability to maintain trade competitiveness, even as Ghana is one of the most stable and democratic countries in West Africa.

Ghana’s decline in the trade rankings is mainly owing to a worsening macroeconomic environment and falling trade confidence, the report shows.

As economic volatility intensified in Ghana, its ability to facilitate seamless trade came under strain, making it harder for businesses to access the foreign currency, most notably dollars, that is required to pay for imports and thus engage in cross-border activities, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, which the barometer focuses on.

Overall, the macroeconomic conditions across the countries present a mixed outlook, with relatively sustained growth tempered by ongoing challenges.

Countries such as Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, Angola, South Africa and Nigeria are expected to see improvements in real GDP growth this year and into 2025.

Despite having the lowest growth rate among the ten surveyed countries, South Africa’s economy is forecast to grow, driven by increased energy production and moderated inflation. GDP growth is projected to rise slightly to 1.1% this year, up from 0.7% in 2023. Factors driving this improvement in growth include falling inflation.

The overall estimated real GDP growth rate for 2025 stands at 4.3%, reflecting steady progress despite headwinds, according to the report.

Positive developments include infrastructure investments, economic diversification efforts, and increased production in sectors such as oil, mining and agriculture.

However, high inflation, forecast to reach 9.9% this year, remains a pressing concern, driven by currency depreciation and worsened by weather events such as severe droughts in Southern Africa and flooding in East Africa, the report warns.

It avers that amid these complex dynamics, the path forward will require a focus on prudent economic management, diversified growth strategies, and bolstering resilience against climate risks.

The ten countries covered by the SB ATB are African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) signatory nations, representing 66% of Africa’s GDP and 45% of the continent’s population.

“As Africa moves towards greater integration under the AfCFTA, the [SB] ATB offers critical insights into the opportunities and challenges faced by African businesses and stakeholders in facilitating trade.

“The shifts detailed in the report further reflect changing macroeconomic conditions, infrastructure challenges and access to finance amongst many others, which are all impacting the trade environments of the ten countries featured,” explains Standard Bank Business and Commercial Banking group head Philip Myburgh.

The SB ATB covers seven broad thematic categories of data that impact on Africa’s trade, and upon which the barometer scores each country. These categories are trade openness, access to finance, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, foreign trade, governance and economy, as well as traders’ financial behaviour.