Considering the global economy thrives on predictability, when certainty evaporates, businesses have to adapt or perish, says Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) CEO Busi Mavuso.

In her latest newsletter, she notes that South Africa is pursuing a dual strategy of restoring predictable US trade relations while simultaneously securing international partnerships and building the infrastructure foundation that enables the country to be competitive in global trade, adding that President Cyril Ramaphosa made this case powerfully last week at the UN General Assembly.

Speaking at a South Africa-US trade and investment dialogue, Mavuso notes that the President outlined clear goals for South Africa’s relationship with the US, namely, to sustain and expand trade flows, keep local companies competitive and ensure workers and consumers in both countries benefit from the partnership.

“The practical steps he announced matter,” she says, adding that a South Africa-US Trade and Investment Forum will be held alongside next year's yearly South African Investment Conference.

“The US Chamber of Commerce will take over B20 chairmanship from South Africa, providing another way for the two countries to work together on improving trade relationships. These moves can generate real mutual benefit.”

But Ramaphosa also confronted an uncomfortable truth, she adds, noting that unprecedented trade policy uncertainty is hammering the global economy, with sharply negative consequences for development.

Mavuso notes that the US remains South Africa’s second-largest trading partner after China, yet current tariff policies are forcing countries like South Africa to diversify risk by seeking new markets.

As the President noted at the Council on Foreign Relations, Mavuso says, South Africa is actively upgrading trade relations worldwide.

“This is an economic necessity. We hope Ramaphosa's message landed clearly with his US counterparts,” she notes.

“Those of us in business can't wait for political breakthroughs. The short-term pain is real. We've seen retrenchment announcements as companies freeze production lines when orders halt. But we must focus on opportunities we can unlock in new markets and through successful structural reforms,” she adds.

With regard to a critical domestic trade issue – logistics – Mavuso notes that last week's World Bank and S&P Global port rankings again placed South African ports among the world's worst.

“That headline stings, but it misses the transformation already under way,” she says, arguing that the rankings rely on dated information that does not capture South Africa’s complex port systems' recent performance.

Mavuso explains that current data shows that the country’s container ports are tracking 2025/26 targets for units shipped, noting that Durban, ranked last of 403 ports in the World Bank report, now performs in line with global benchmarks.

Mavuso also notes that handling time, measured from lifting a customer’s container off a vessel and transporting it into their facility, has dropped from 21 days to two days since 2023.

“That's not just an improvement; it's a fundamental shift in trading costs.”

Beyond ports, the broader logistics picture is brightening, says Mavuso, adding that rail has seen volumes increase by 15%.

Moreover, she points out that border post queues have been slashed by 83% during peak periods, notwithstanding a 13% increase in the number of vehicles being processed daily.

Combined, these improvements mean materially lower trade costs for South African companies, says Mavuso, adding that those are achievements of the business/government partnership that has been formed through the National Logistics Crisis Committee.

Mavuso notes that the President's efforts may reduce tariff barriers with the US.

“Even if they don't, we're mitigating the impact through new global partnerships and logistics improvements. But we can do much more domestically to boost competitiveness and make trade a job creator again.”

Further, Mavuso explains that State-owned Transnet’s performance has improved, yet the Auditor-General reported that over 60% of recovery plan milestones were missed last financial year.

She describes rail improvements as notable but still behind target, noting that South Africa expects a 5% shortfall this year.

Mavuso says August brought a major breakthrough, with 11 train operating companies, including Transnet Freight Rail, having been chosen to operate routes across the network.

She says this introduces meaningful competition and should dramatically improve service levels.

“I hope contracts are concluded speedily and we see the first privately operated trains running soon”.

Mavuso adds that ports need similar treatment, noting that concessioning port infrastructure will introduce competition, driving service levels up and costs down.

On that front, she says progress has been slow, with the concessioning of the Durban container port embroiled in litigation and the bringing of other private sector participation opportunities to market being delayed by the analysis required for the unexpected volume of responses received.

She argues that more needs to be done across the ports, and reforms concluded, to get private sector operators investing and working.

“US trade tariffs have been disastrous. But I'm confident that logistics advances and new market engagement are creating a better medium-term outlook even as we work through short-term pain.

“This reflects our ability as South Africans to confront crises together and overcome them. The foundation we're building today – stronger ports, competitive rail, diversified partnerships – will serve us well regardless of which political winds blow tomorrow.”