As climate change and the decisions taken to reduce emissions impact on communities and workers in multiple value chains, five key value chains will be impacted in South Africa – namely coal, petroleum-based transport, tourism, metals and agriculture.

With this in mind, independent, nonprofit economic research institution Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), with funding from the UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (UK-PACT) programme, has undertaken a Sector Jobs Resilience Plan in each of the five sectors that builds on vulnerability assessments in each of these value chains.

The research looks at the broader package of how to protect those vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in terms of aspects such as changing weather patterns, as well as the impact of climate-based policies that are being implemented locally and internationally.

During a learning event on February 17, speakers discussed the roles of government, stakeholders and unions, as well the need for strategies such as active labour market policies, social protection measures and economic diversification to support vulnerable workers.

“We need things that are going to create employment at a mass scale,” said TIPS executive director Dr Saul Levin.

During the presentation, TIPS economist Dr Michael Hector pointed out that the local agriculture sector employe about 840 000 workers, with these jobs being mostly seasonal.

Hector noted that, while the sector did have globally competitive commercial and industrial agriculture entities that could respond to climate change and afford climate change adaptation technologies, the sector also consisted of more marginalised household production groups and smaller-scale farmers that did not have the financial capabilities to respond to climate change.

He noted that farm workers were the most at-risk group in the sector in terms of employment, owing to climate-related job loss risks on account of issues such as droughts or floods that could lead to farm closures, for example.

Hector also pointed out that many of these workers often had limited skillsets which further limited their transition out of agriculture. Social and geographic isolation could also further reduce their abilities, as well as their access to services, such as unionisation.

Hence, he proposed the creation of a national agriculture climate change working or steering group and the development of an agriculture sector adaptation strategy, as per the Climate Change Act.

In the development of an agricultural sector adaptation strategy, Hector also proposed a climate change adaptation strategy that included an evaluation of existing initiatives to identify any weaknesses in responding to climate change.

“Essentially here what needs to happen is some sort of collaboration with research institutes and the private sector to focus on the diffusion of knowledge.

“Evidence shows us that a lot of small-scale farmers do not have access to these technologies, or cannot afford access to these technologies. So there needs to be some consideration for technological and knowledge diffusion, especially in those areas that are drought stricken or prone to flood,” he said, highlighting the need for adequate climate data.

“We cannot act if we do not know the data specifically at a provincial and municipal level, which will then dictate how we respond and what type of support is needed.”

Hector also proposed economic diversification in the sector to broaden the range of economic opportunities available to farm workers and local communities, emphasising the importance of understanding local considerations when developing economic diversification proposals.

Also speaking at the event, TIPS senior economist for sustainable development Muhammed Patel highlighted the role of coal in the just energy transition, highlighting the commodity’s importance in electricity generation and petrochemicals production.

Patel noted two key provisional risk windows in the coal value chain.

He explained that the first risk window is the period from 2030 to 2036, owing to the proposed decommissioning of coal capacity, in terms of the latest Integrated Resource Plan, and other climate policy mechanisms.

The second risk window pertains to the period from the mid-2030s that Patel said would see deeper potential impact from additional decommissioning and reducing export demand from export partners, chiefly in Asia.

Patel thus noted that vulnerable groups included workers in the coal value chain, specifically at the mining stage, workers at the country’s coal-fired power stations and downstream petrochemicals production.

Other vulnerable groups included women in the value chain, small businesses that feed into the value chain in key municipalities and households and communities.

Hence, Patel outlined key pillars to address these issues, namely governance and implementation capacity; mitigating climate policy impacts; economic diversification; active labour market polices; and social protection and income support strategies.

“We have to view these pillars as a cohesive package, it's not either/or, it's a combination of, and the combination of will differ based on the value chain and based on the region.”

Regarding the petroleum-based transport sector, TIPS senior economist Nokwanda Maseko explained that the value chain covered about 1.3-million people, of which about 70% included mechanics and other land transport workers, such as taxi drivers.

She listed mechanics and taxi drivers as vulnerable groups in the value chain, owing to these workers having fewer resources, such as lower education levels and informal employment.

Maseko highlighted key pillars in the value chain, including the facilitation of technology adoption which contained multiple proposals in itself.

The first proposal regarding the facilitation of technology adoption related to hybrid or fully electric technologies for minibus taxis not being fully accessible at this point.

With the lack of availability of these technologies, Maseko noted that whatever was available would also be expensive.

Hence, she noted the importance of expanding access either through local manufacturing or through imports, arguing that the Department of Transport (DoT) should play a key role in leading this conversation.

The second part of the proposal revolved around financing. Maseko highlighted the need for the DoT to redesign the current recapitalisation programme to cater for the procurement of new-energy vehicle (NEV) taxis when they became available.

Thirdly, Maseko discussed the need for expanding the available charging infrastructure to incentivise the uptake of NEV taxis by the industry.

“If there's no charging infrastructure, then it makes it less likely that the taxi industry is going to want to procure NEVs if they don't know where they are going to charge, how long it's going to require for them to charge.”