Global trade started this year on stable ground, but challenges are mounting and the latest Global Trade Update by United Nations Trade and Development (Unctad), which covers data through to early March, signals a shifting landscape.

Shipping trends indicate a slowdown, with falling freight indices signalling weaker industrial activity, particularly in supply-chain-dependent sectors, the trade agency said.

World trade saw record expansion to $33-trillion in 2024, up 3.7% from 2023, driven by developing economies and strong services trade.

But new risks loom ahead, including trade imbalances, evolving policies and geopolitical tensions, says Unctad.

Supply chains are diversifying, not consolidating. Nearshoring and friendshoring trends reversed in 2024, as businesses moved beyond limiting trade to geopolitical allies or nearby regions.

Instead of consolidating supply chains, firms are now diversifying trade networks across multiple regions to reduce risk, thereby creating opportunities but adding complexity, it notes.

South-South trade is holding up, but Africa’s intra-regional trade is shrinking, reversing gains. Trade between Europe and Central Asia has declined, reflecting shifting demand.

Asia and Latin America remain key trade drivers, but growth has slowed in many advanced economies. The gap between developing and advanced economies is widening, it says.

Further, trade dependence is also shifting. Economies such as Russia, Vietnam and India have deepened trade ties with specific partners, while others, including Australia and the EU, are reducing reliance on traditional markets.

The decline in trade concentration suggests that smaller economies are playing a bigger role, Unctad said.

In 2024, global trade imbalances returned to 2022 levels. The US trade deficit grew, China’s surplus expanded, while the EU shifted to surplus owing to energy price changes, the trade agency pointed out.

Bilateral gaps persist, with the US-China deficit widening, the EU’s surplus with China growing, and India’s deficit with Russia having increased amid shifting energy trade.

These trends could prompt new tariffs, restrictions or investment shifts, and thereby adding to economic uncertainty, Unctad says.

Meanwhile, governments are expanding tariffs, subsidies and industrial policies, thereby reshaping trade flows.

The US, EU and others are increasingly tying trade measures to economic security and climate goals, while China is using stimulus policies to maintain export momentum.

“This policy realignment is contributing to uncertainty. Rising protectionism, which are policies favouring domestic industries through tariffs or restrictions, particularly in advanced economies, is triggering retaliatory measures, namely countermeasures from trading partners in response to trade restrictions, and adding trade barriers.”

Additionally, industrial policies and long-term strategies to develop specific sectors are reshaping key sectors like clean energy, technology and critical raw materials, risking competition distortion, Unctad highlights.

Trade growth has also varied by industry, with agri-food, communication technology and transport realising gains, while energy, apparel and extractives slow owing to weaker demand and policy shifts, it adds.

As trade uncertainty grows, global cooperation and balanced policies remain critical. While China’s stimulus measures and lower inflation in some regions could support trade, protectionism and shifting policies in major economies remain key risks.

The challenge this year is to prevent global fragmentation, with nations forming isolated trade blocs, while managing policy shifts without undermining long-term growth.