You’re on Mute!
If only I could get a cent for every time that I have been on a ‘lockdown’ video call hearing someone saying “. . . you’re on mute”, only for the person implicated to answer after an uncomfortable pause, “I’m sorry, I was on mute”, I would be a very rich man indeed.
It is evident that Covid-19 has placed all of us on mute, rendering us speechless or even more concerning, unwilling to speak. However, as I have written on various occasion in the past, borrowing from the 1736 work Melancholy State of Province, “Actions speak louder than words, and are more to be regarded.” In the same vain, “Never trust words, trust actions, actions always speak louder than words!”
This begs the question, or rather questions, who will and just how can the economy be taken off mute? Just to be clear, the reference is to the South African economy. As for the world economy, this will be left to the international heavyweights – international organisations, and Finance Ministers.
Retuning to our shores, and quite opportune at that, on July 10, Fin24 reported on the proposals of Business for South Africa (B4SA), in its article ‘SA business grouping proposes ambitious R3.4-trillion economic recovery plan’.
The 12 key policy focus areas are (i) Tackle crime and corruption; (ii) Improve ease of doing business; (iii) Mobilise large-scale infrastructure projects; (iv) State-owned enterprises (SOEs) reform and rationalisation; (v) Clarity on land reform; (vi) Education and skills development; (vii) Review trade policies; (viii) Labour law reform; (ix) Simplify mining investment regulation; (x) Align national energy strategy across sectors; (xi) Telecoms: maximise connectivity; and (xii) Financial inclusion and fiscal support.
Consider this for a moment against the backdrop that Fin24 articulates of the B4SA economic recovery plan. The numbers are R3.4-trillion required over the next three years, pushing public-sector debt from R4-trillion to R6.4-trillion, which does not account “the potential rescue funds for corporates or unforeseen bail-out for SOEs”.
According to B4SA, “this funding need cannot be met by domestic sources, nor is it possible for the South African Reserve Bank to address the shortfall in a responsible and sustainable manner through monetary measures”.
South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract anywhere between a record 7% and 13%, with National Treasury projecting a budget deficit of 14.6%, which is higher than B4SA’s estimate of 13.3%. As a final barrage, B4SA concludes that “in the absence of growth enhancing structural reforms, budget deficits are expected to remain high and government debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP in 2023”.
So, what did you not hear? What went on mute? Which part of the what, the when, and the who? You might well be under the illusion that you heard the what. The what, as to what needs to be done. Only thing is, you did not. You might think that you did, but you definitely did not.
If anything, we have become tone deaf, economically speaking that is. Of the 12 points above, what is new exactly? What have you not heard before, either individually or collectively? In a word ‘nothing’. You heard nothing, nothing new. And therein lies the problem. Well, part of the problem. A second critical issue is when? Just exactly when?
At issue is that somehow, as South Africans, we believe that what we have is time in abundance. Somehow, we have time aplenty to contemplate, consider, and to reconsider economic plans. But we simply do not. If anything, the economic consequences of Covid-19 needs to be confronted head-on, but more importantly doing so at pace, at extreme pace. In doing so, South Africans also need a strong dose of a reality check, although there is a desire for foreign direct investment, why would it result if domestic direct investment (yes, I know there is no such thing) is lacking? If South African business does not believe and does not invest in its business and its economy, why would foreigners?
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