Generative AI (GenAI) smartphone shipments worldwide in 2024 are expected to surge 363.6% to 234.2-million units as the future of the smartphone industry transforms.

According to a new forecast by the International Data Corporation (IDC), GenAI smartphone shipments will represent 19% of the overall smartphone market in 2024.

The IDC’s ‘Worldwide generative AI smartphone forecast 2024 to 2028’ report shows that the growth will continue in 2025, with shipments of GenAI smartphones expected to increase 73.1% year-on-year.

By 2028, IDC forecasts 912-million GenAI smartphone shipments, resulting in a 2024 to 2028 compound annual growth rate of 78.4%.

GenAI capabilities on smartphones will drive upgrades and represent a significant opportunity for vendors and application developers alike, despite the challenges posed by elongated refresh cycles and macroeconomic uncertainties, the report notes.

“The rapid incorporation of GenAI in smartphones is unprecedented in mobile history, with market penetration expected to exceed 60% within the first three years,” says IDC worldwide tracker team senior research director Nabila Popal.

However, she adds that the most significant impact of this evolution is anticipated in 2026, when mid-range devices are expected to adopt this technology, making a momentous leap towards the democratisation of GenAI.

“While it is still too early to know all the use cases that will emerge in the coming years, one thing is for sure – GenAI will completely transform the way we interact with our smartphones.”

While sales of GenAI smartphones in the first year or two will likely be limited to flagship devices, the future holds even more exciting developments, as the potential for more personalised and proactive AI assistants becomes increasingly likely, with phones capable of running GenAI on the device becoming more prevalent.

This evolution will be driven by consumer demand, application developments and overall industry growth.

“GenAI smartphones are inevitable and look to be the next big thing the industry has to offer consumers,” says IDC mobile phones research director Anthony Scarsella.

He points out that the triple-digit growth in 2024 will be followed by four consecutive years of double-digit growth as device manufacturers look to incorporate GenAI-capable features across their device offerings.

Cost will remain a critical inhibitor initially, as many of the capable chipsets are not cheap and are available primarily in the ultra- premium segment of the market.

“However, over time, we believe these components will enter the mid-market and more affordable models as competition grows among device manufacturers and AI applications.”