Industry bodies South Africa Wine and Vinpro expect an improvement in this year’s first harvest wine grape crop, compared with the previous year’s record low yield of 1.18-million tonnes.

Early forecasts indicate an improved yield owing to moderate weather conditions and minimal disruption from extreme weather events.

“The growing season has benefited from favourable winter rainfall patterns and a moderate spring, which have supported even budding and healthy vine growth.

“While the national vineyard area continues to shrink, the current conditions and producer resilience suggest a high-quality harvest across key cultivars,” says Vinpro consultation services head Dr Etienne Terblanche.

The 2024 post-harvest period was characterised by warm, dry and windy conditions, creating an ideal environment for maintaining healthy vine canopies.

Despite localised challenges such as wind damage along the coast and a delayed recovery owing to lower early winter rainfall, record-breaking rains in July replenished irrigation reserves and ensured sufficient water storage for the growing season.

“The heavy winter rainfall improved water availability but, once again, came at a cost, particularly due to infrastructure damage caused by flooding along riverbanks,” Terblanche explains.

He adds that apart from some cultivar-specific challenges related to low early winter cold accumulation, most vineyards have shown strong growth heading into the season.

The growing season started ten days later than last year, but moderate conditions and careful management practices have helped avoid the frost damage and extensive flooding experienced in 2024.

While early cultivars like Chardonnay and Pinotage show significant improvement, mid-season cultivars, including Chenin Blanc and Shiraz, have demonstrated some variability in bunch numbers.

However, late-season cultivars such as Colombar and Cabernet Sauvignon hold strong promise at this stage.

“The conditions over the next two to three months will be important. Factors impacting grape berry size and quality will play a decisive role in determining the potential of the harvest. Producers are optimistic, but continued careful monitoring and adaptation will be key to achieving the full potential of this crop,” Terblanche states.

In the absence of extreme weather disruptions this season and the industry’s general adaptability, South Africa Wine CE Rico Basson says the season’s outlook is positive.

Stock levels in the industry are at equilibrium, matching the demand from global and domestic markets.

“If the current conditions hold, South Africa is set to deliver a harvest of both quantity and quality, reinforcing its position as a global wine leader,” Basson asserts.

The 2025 harvest estimate, which is compiled by Vinpro in collaboration with South African Wine Industry Information and Systems, will be reviewed continuously as the season progresses.

The next estimate, scheduled for release in January, will provide further insights into what promises to be a crucial year for the South African wine industry.