US aerospace giant Boeing has, on the eve of the Paris Air Show, released its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) report. The group predicts a total global demand for 42 600 new commercial jets over the next two decades. The air transport sector has already resurged back, or almost back, to its levels before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the airframer pointed out.

The annual CMO forecasts worldwide demand for jet airliners and freighters, from the regional to widebody categories, for the following 20 years – in this case, until 2042. Boeing’s CMO is the world’s oldest such survey, having been first published in 1961.

“The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalising on resurgent demand,” highlighted Boeing commercial sales and marketing senior VP Brad McMullen. “Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery.”

The CMO predicts that the growth rate for air passenger traffic will continue to outstrip that for global economic growth (which the Outlook expects to be 2.6%). The global airliner fleet will grow at a rate of 3.5% a year, to increase by almost 100%, to 48 595 jets, by 2042. Approximately half of the global airliner fleet will be replaced by new, more fuel-efficient types.

Subdivided into categories, between this year and 2042, deliveries of new airliners are expected to total 1 810 regional jets, 32 420 single-aisle jets, 7 440 widebody jets and 925 dedicated freighters. Single-aisle types will thus form more than 75% of all new deliveries (a figure that is slightly higher than the one forecast in the 2022 CMO). Low-cost carriers will operate more than 40% of the global single-aisle fleet by 2042; 20 years ago, their share had been 10%. Widebodies will comprise nearly 20% of new airliner deliveries.

Regarding air cargo, Boeing expects that to grow at a faster rate than global trade. The figure of 925 dedicated freighters is for new-build widebody freighters only and excludes conversions of both single-aisle and widebody airliners into dedicated freighters. The CMO predicts that the total number of dedicated freighter aircraft required over the next 20 years will actually be 2 800.

The region which will have the biggest demand for new commercial aircraft will be the Asia-Pacific, which will be responsible for more than 40% of the global requirement. Half of that – some 20% of global demand – will be accounted for by China alone. North America and Europe will also account for 20% each. South Asia’s airliner fleets will grow by more than 7% a year, which will be the fastest rate in the world; India will be responsible for more than 90% of the subcontinent’s passenger traffic.