Brazil-based major aerospace group Embraer has released its 2023 Market Outlook report, at the Paris Air Show. The report predicts demand for new airliners with 150 seats or fewer over the next 20 years – that is, until 2042. The Outlook covers both jet and turboprop aircraft. (Embraer is the world’s leading manufacturer of commercial jets with 150 seats or fewer.)

The report forecasts a demand for 11 000 new jets and turboprops in this category, over the surveyed period. These will be divided into 8 790 jets and 2 210 turboprops and have a total value of $650-billion. Demand for these smaller airliners is being driven by airlines’ need for flexibility, and they will complement the larger single-aisle airliners.

The Outlook expects that global air passenger volumes will have a compound annual growth rate over this period of 3.2%. Worldwide, passenger traffic will return to 2019 (that is, pre-Covid-19 pandemic) levels next year.

Against a background of an extended recovery from the pandemic, changes in the international political situation, and altered industry dynamics, the forecast identifies three major factors driving future air travel and airliner demand. The first of these (in Embraer’s order) is the fragmentation of the global economy, with businesses and supply chains becoming regionalised, which will change the way people and goods will move. The second is a “social revolution” – the emergence of a remote workforce, which will stimulate the development of air services to new communities. The third is the impact on markets of the drive to achieve sustainability; these impacts will include levels of demand, the cost of new fuels and the cost of new technology, which will likely increase the costs of flying in the future.

Using smaller (150 seat or less) airliners to complement standard single-aisle (or narrow-body) types will help airlines deal with uncertain and changing demand. Another trend that will influence future fleet compositions is the increasing popularity of “crossover” narrow-body dedicated freighter jets.

Of the world’s regions, the Asia-Pacific will see the fastest rate of growth in air passenger traffic, at 4.4%, followed by Latin America at 4.1%, then Africa (3.7%), the Middle East (3.2%), North America (2.2%) and wider Europe – that is, including those States which had once been part of the USSR – (2%). By 2042, the Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of global air passenger demand, while North America and wider Europe combined will be responsible for 38%.

Of the expected 8 790 new jets to be delivered between now and 2042, 2 690, or 30.6%, will go to North America. The Asia-Pacific will receive 2 270 (25.8%), wider Europe will take 2 390 (27.2%), Latin America 780 (8.9%), the Middle East 340 (3.9%) and Africa 320 (3.6%). Of the 2 210 new turboprops forecast to be sold over this period, 910 (or 41%) will go to the Asia-Pacific, 450 (20.2%) to wider Europe, 410 (18.5%) to North America, 210 (9.5%) to Africa, 180 (8.1%) to Latin America and 50 (2.7%) to the Middle East.