State-owned power utility Eskom has achieved 100 consecutive days without loadshedding, which reflects the enhanced reliability and performance of its generation fleet.

The continuous suspension of loadshedding has been achieved against a backdrop of a significant decrease in the use of open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to supplement generation capacity.

“The 100 days milestone includes around a R6.2-billion reduction in OCGT diesel expenditure from April 1 to June 30, compared to the same period last year and, if we maintain our trajectory on reduced diesel spend, it will be a strong driver in a possible return to profit in the 2025 financial year,” said Eskom Group CE Dan Marokane.

This accomplishment is the result of its multi-dimensional generation operational recovery plan, started in March 2023, and aggressive planned maintenance. These were made possible by financial support from the National Treasury Eskom debt relief scheme.

“The achievement of 100 continuous days without loadshedding is the outcome of the diligent execution of recovery plans and the efforts of our 40 000 dedicated and skilled Eskom employees," said Eskom generation group executive Bheki Nxumalo.

“If we maintain a 70% energy availability factor (EAF) and add significant capacity within the country, we can ensure adequate available capacity to meet demand without a significant risk of loadshedding," he added.

“The ability to get to 100 days without loadshedding is significant, considering the intensity and the levels of loadshedding in 2023, although the risk of loadshedding still exists,” said Marokane.

Eskom's targeted initiatives have led to a gradual reduction of unplanned losses in its generation fleet to an average of 12 000 MW from 18 000 MW, which is an improvement of 6 000 MW since May 2023.

This has contributed to a sustained improvement in the EAF, which has increased from 54.56% at the end of the 2023/24 financial year to a year-to-date achievement of 61.5%, which is an increase of 6.94% over the past three months.

The utility thanked government, the National Energy Crisis Committee and other key stakeholders for their collaborative efforts, which have enabled the successful execution of its plans.

“Our immediate focus remains on implementing the generation operational recovery plan, aiming to recover about 1 600 MW from the generation coal fleet following the successful commercial operation of Kusile Unit 5 and 930 MW from Koeberg Unit 2 before the end of the calendar year. This will significantly improve the EAF by the end of March 2025.”

Eskom said it would continue to implement the operational recovery plan, strengthen governance and future-proof the organisation to ensure energy security, growth and long-term sustainability for the benefit of South Africa.

“We remain committed to improving the current business while laying the groundwork for future opportunities and initiatives. We will continue to seize every opportunity presented by industry changes for the benefit of all our stakeholders. The pace of change is rapid, and we are prepared to deliver on the future through improved implementation and disciplined execution,” Eskom said.

The achievement marked a significant milestone in South Africa's journey towards a more stable and reliable electricity supply, said Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

“This achievement is a testament to the hard work, dedication and collaboration of all those involved in the energy sector. I want to express my sincere appreciation to Eskom, its competent employees, and all stakeholders for their efforts in ensuring that we maintain a consistent power supply for our nation,” he said.

“The absence of loadshedding not only benefits our economy and businesses but also enhances the quality of the lives of our citizens.

“While celebrating the milestone, we remain committed to the continuous improvement of our energy infrastructure, the diversification of our energy sources and the promotion of sustainable practices,” he added.

“Together, we can build a resilient and efficient energy sector that meets the needs of our country now and in the future.”

MINERALS COUNCIL RESPONSE
The Minerals Council South Africa, meanwhile, commented that the improvement in the trend of Eskom's power plant performance and EAF was reflected in the country reaching the milestone of 100 days without loadshedding on July 4.

Eskom maintained the EAF above 60% in June, with a slight decrease to 63.1% in June, from 63.9% in May. This marks the second consecutive month with an EAF above 60%, indicating a potential sustained improvement in Eskom’s power plant performance, the council pointed out.

“It is evident that Eskom’s performance showed a notable improvement starting in March. Although 2024 began with a low EAF of around 50%, it increased steadily to approximately 65% by mid-year. However, this level is still below the peaks observed in 2019, 2020 and 2021.”

However, across all years, the EAF typically peaks between May and July before declining towards the end of the year, the Minerals Council noted.

This mid-year improvement in efficiency can partly be attributed to an improved performance of coal plants during winter months, when cooling requirements are more favourable.

Despite the recent improvements, sustained efforts are essential to further enhance the EAF and achieve the Integrated Resource Plan target of 75%.

Historical data clearly shows a significant gap between current performance and the target, underscoring the need for continued focus and strategic initiatives, the industry organisation noted.

Further, Statistics South Africa data showed that real electricity generation increased by 5.7% year-on-year in May. However, month on month, seasonally adjusted electricity production was 0.5% lower than in April.

Additionally, overall electricity production in May was about 8.5% below pre-Covid-19 average levels. However, this is a significant improvement from the 11% deficit reported in January of this year, the Minerals Council said in its analysis.

Electricity production remains significantly below January 2019 levels, but there are clear signs that it has hit a low point, it pointed out.

In June, there was an increase of about 1 100 MW in planned Eskom maintenance compared with May. This rise in planned maintenance, along with the reduction in unplanned maintenance, suggests that Eskom is effectively identifying and addressing potential issues before they result in unexpected failures, the Minerals Council said.

The decrease in unplanned breakdowns is particularly encouraging, as these pose the greatest risk to the loadshedding outlook. This shift indicates a positive move towards improved maintenance planning to enhance the overall efficiency and stability of Eskom's power plants.

In June, OCGT use increased compared with May, as Eskom used these to smooth out peak demand during the winter days.

Primary data, however, still shows that OCGT use remains minimal compared with 2023 monthly averages, the council said.