Global trade is on course to exceed a record $35-trillion this year, a 7% year-on-year increase, according to global trade organisation UN Trade and Development’s (Unctad's) year-end ‘Global Trade Update’.

The new data confirms that trade continued to expand throughout the second half of this year, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum.

East Asia, Africa and South–South trade powered gains, while rising uncertainty shapes the outlook for 2026, it notes.

Global trade growth remained strong this year, but slowed in the third and fourth quarters.

Between July and September, global trade grew by 2.5% compared with the previous three months. Trade in goods rose nearly 2%, while trade in services increased by 4%.

Further, growth is expected to continue in the year’s final quarter, though at a slower pace, at 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.

If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5-trillion to this year’s total and services $750-billion, which are consistent with an overall 7% increase for the full year.

Meanwhile, Unctad notes that a key shift is unfolding on prices. After two quarters in which trade values rose partly because goods became more expensive, prices are now expected to drop, it points out.

As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes, which is the actual quantity of goods shipped, rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases, it notes.

Trade inflation is also set to fall in the fourth quarter, it adds.

Further, East Asia, Africa and South–South trade led gains, with East Asia recording the strongest export growth over the past year of 9%, supported by a 10% surge in intra-regional trade.

Africa also performed strongly, with imports up 10% and exports 6% higher. South–South trade expanded by about 8%, which reflects deepening economic ties among developing economies, the report points out.

China and the Republic of Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa. India and China also posted some of the strongest growth in services exports, which underscores the growing weight of emerging economies in global trade.

Additionally, manufacturing grew by 10% over the year, led by a 14% increase in electronics driven by AI-related demand. Agriculture expanded sharply in the third quarter, with cereals and fruit and vegetable exports each rising 11%.

However, automotive trade fell by 4%, while fossil fuel trade declined amid lower prices, Unctad says.

Trade in 2025 has consistently outpaced global economic growth, thereby reversing the stagnation of 2023 to 2024, Unctad points out.

However, imbalances remain elevated, and friendshoring and nearshoring, which are trade shifting towards politically-aligned or geographically closer partners, have strengthened again, which is reshaping trade patterns.

Looking ahead to 2026, Unctad expects weaker growth as slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance.