South Africa’s economy probably expanded for a third successive quarter, buoyed by recoveries in the key manufacturing and mining sectors, although US tariffs now pose a fresh challenge to growth.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg from August 8 to 13 expect the economy to expand 0.4% when second quarter gross domestic product is published on September 9, compared with 0.1% in the prior three months.

A bounce back in the manufacturing and mining sectors likely provided a fillip to the economy.

“I expect a somewhat better quarter in the second quarter,” said Johan Els, chief economist at Old Mutual, who is more optimistic than most economists, expecting 0.8% growth. “If you look at the different sectors — coming from deepened negative performance in mining, manufacturing, utilities — all of those sectors have turned around quite significantly.”

The mining sector likely benefitted from demand-based price surges, Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG in South Africa, said.

“Recently, we’ve seen even the platinum, palladium indicators starting to increase,” possibly pushed up by international customers “buying upfront, worrying about the tariffs,” Blackmore said.

US President Donald Trump on August 7 imposed varying tariffs on exports from trading partners, disrupting supply chains and threatening global economic growth. For South Africa, he applied a 30% levy, one of the highest in the world, which is expected to weigh on the automotive and agricultural sectors and may impact as many as 30 000 jobs, according to the nation’s trade department.

The tariffs mean growth may not be sustained through the second half of the year and bodes badly for jobs, said Jee-A Van Der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

“In the third, fourth quarter, the impact will actually then start to bite,” Van Der Linde said. “It’s quite plausible that employment could remain under pressure in the third and fourth quarters, as businesses come to grip with this new trade environment.”

South Africa’s unemployment rate climbed to a year high of 33.2% in the second quarter.

“In this environment, I don’t imagine businesses are going to ramp up production, expand operations and appoint more people; it’s just not that environment,” Van Der Linde said.

While consumer spending is expected to remain a key component of growth for the balance of the year, waning optimism in the face of trade tensions and elevated utility costs may dampen household spending.

“Consumers remain under pressure, especially given increases recently of electricity and the uncertainty out there,” Blackmore said.

Subdued inflation and recent interest rate cuts helped growth in retail sales, a sub-set of the trade sector, rise 0.9% in the second quarter, after shrinking 0.4% in the prior three months.

South African inflation has been near the floor of the central bank’s 3% to 6% target band for nine straight months, allowing policymakers to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points to 7% in 2025, with chances for more easing later this year.