Trade war could knock 3% off global GDP – Bank of France study
An international trade war with wide-ranging tariff hikes could cut global gross domestic product by as much as three percent, according to a study by the French central bank on Thursday.
The direct impact of a generalised 10 percentage point increase in import tariffs could alone knock 1% off global output after two years, economists at the Bank of France found.
"This effect could be amplified by a fall in productivity, a rise in the financing cost of capital and a decline in investment demand," they wrote in the study.
"Taking all these factors into account could result in lowering global real GDP by up to three percent after two years," they added.
The administration of US President Donald Trump has triggered a wave of trade tensions since the start of the year, with steel and aluminium import tariff hikes, and threats of further actions on cars shipped to the United States.
Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that a trade war was the biggest risk facing the global economy and the mere threat could weigh on business confidence and in turn deter companies from making investments.
Comments
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation