Don't expect US miners to replace Russian coal in Europe
US coal miners including Peabody Energy are surging as the European Union proposes banning imports of the fuel from Russia. But it will be difficult, if not impossible, for them to fill the potential supply gap.
The long-term prospects for the dirtiest fossil fuel are grim as concerns about climate change intensify, and miners have had little incentive to invest in new capacity. In the US, the number of producing coal mines slumped more than 60% from 2008 through 2020. The nation’s remaining miners have already sold most of their output under long-term contracts and have few spare tons to deliver.
Those issues have been exacerbated by tight labor markets, while supply-chain bottlenecks would make it difficult to deliver additional tons to export terminals, said Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources, the biggest US exporter.
“I don’t see any ability for the industry to expand production,” he said. “It’s like looking at a sweet dessert that you just can’t reach.”
Russia supplied about 18% of global coal exports in 2020, with Europe as the largest buyer. Prices in the US have been soaring, surpassing $100/t last week for the first time in 13 years.
Peabody, the biggest US coal producer, jumped as much as 14% Tuesday, the most intraday in two weeks. Arch, the second-biggest miner, climbed as much as 7.5%, while Consol Energy gained as much as 12% as prices spiked in Europe.
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