Over the next 20 years, African airlines will acquire 380 new jet airliners in the small single-aisle (or small narrowbody) segment – that is, aircraft with fewer than 150 seats – and 220 new turboprop airliners. This is the forecast of Brazil-based global major aerospace group Embraer, in its Market Outlook 2024, released at the Farnborough International Airshow, currently under way in the UK. Embraer’s Commercial Aviation business specialises in small narrowbody airliners.

Africa’s gross domestic product is expected to grow at an average yearly rate of 3.6% between now and 2043, the report notes. African air passenger demand is expected to grow faster still, at an average yearly rate of 4.4%.

Currently, African carriers operate a combined total of 470 small single-aisle jets and turboprops. The forecast acquisitions will increase this combined total to 850 in 2043.

“Africa is one of the world’s fastest-growing regions with a huge opportunity to build a robust, efficient air transport network,” states the outlook. “Fundamentals of the region are conducive to sub-150-seat aircraft: thinner markets with lower demand are better served by smaller aircraft to efficiently increase frequencies, load factors and yields. … [C]onnectivity is central to promoting growth but needs political coordination and the right aircraft types.”

In the report, Embraer points out that many African carriers have a persistent problem of low load factors. Most of them use larger single-aisle airliners, but 63% of the markets they serve see fewer than 130 passengers per flight. Replacing large single-aisle aircraft with small ones would increase these airlines’ load factors, boost their yields, and result in greater profits.

“Air travel is an essential service in most countries and a vehicle for promoting tourism and advancing trade and regional development. Extensive network connectivity – with a mix of small and large narrowbody jets – is a hallmark of the North American airline industry and one of the reasons it consistently records high profit margins. Azul Airlines of Brazil has adopted a similar connectivity strategy,” highlights the outlook. “Africa can benefit from a similar mixed-fleet approach. Smaller, more efficient narrowbodies can drive long-term economic and social prosperity.”

Embraer forecasts that the global demand for both new small single-aisle jets and turboprops over the next 20 years will total 10 500. This will be divided into 8 470 jets and 2 030 turboprops, with a total market value of $640-billion.  

The biggest market for the jets will be North America, with 2 610, amounting to 30.8% of all the new small single-aisle jets. It will be followed by China and the Asia-Pacific, with 2 260 (26.7%), then Europe and the States that once formed the Soviet Union, with 2 110 (24.9%), Latin America with 770 (9.1%), and then Africa, whose 380 jets represent 4.5% of the global total. Finally, the Middle East will take 340 of the jets, or 4% of the total.

Regarding the turboprops, the biggest market will be China and the Asia-Pacific, which will require 980 new aircraft, or 48.3% of the total. Next will come North America, with 350, or 17.2%, followed by Europe and the ex-Soviet countries (290 or 14.3%). Africa will be next, its demand for 220 accounting for 10.8% of the global total. Then Latin America (160 aircraft, or 7.9%) and finally the Middle East (30 aircraft, or 1.5%).

Embraer also forecasts emerging opportunities for smaller jet freighter aircraft, resulting from the global boom in e-commerce. (Also at Farnborough, the airframer announced that its E190F converted passenger-to-full cargo aircraft had been certified by Brazil’s National Civil Aviation Agency.)

“A mix [sic] fleet of sub-150-seat jets and larger narrowbodies will be the successful fleet strategy for the next 20 years,” affirmed Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO Arjan Meijer. “The post-pandemic environment is different in so many ways. The business/leisure passenger mix is different. Demand patterns are different. The corporate workplace is different. And e-commerce is booming. Carriers are adding capacity in big markets, yet smaller cities still need to stay well-connected to airline networks with high frequency air service. We believe aircraft in the sub-150-seat category are the most efficient and cost-effective to address that need.”