JSE-listed platinum group metal (PGM) producer Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has warned that its headline earnings and headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the 12 months ended December 31 have decreased by between 36% and 46% year-on-year.

The company said in a trading statement on February 6 that headline earnings were likely to be between R7.6-billion and R9-billion, compared with R14-billion in 2023, while HEPS were expected to be between R28.89 and R34.21, compared with R53.30 in the year prior.

Basic earnings and earnings per share (EPS) for the period had also decreased by between 42% and 52% year-on-year. Amplats said basic earnings were likely to be between R6.3-billion and R7.6-billion for 2024, down from R13-billion in 2023, while EPS were expected to be between R23.95 and R28.89, just about half of the R49.52 reported for 2023.

Amplats said the year-on-year decrease in earnings was primarily a result of a 13% decline in realised PGM prices in rand terms.

Further, palladium and rhodium dollar prices decreased 24% and 30%, respectively.

The company said its headline earnings were also impacted on by R3.5-billion in nonrecurring costs associated with recent operational and corporate restructurings, as well as the demerger from parent company Anglo American and losses from associates.

The company’s basic earnings were further impacted by a R1.9-billion write-down of assets, mainly relating to the coarse particle recovery technology at Mogalakwena.

These nonrecurring costs had a negative impact on EPS and HEPS of about R17 a share and about R11 a share, respectively.

Taxation and royalties also declined in line with the lower profits.

Amplats will release its full audited year-end results on February 17.

FOURTH-QUARTER PRODUCTION

Alongside the trading statement, Amplats also released a PGM production report for the fourth quarter ended December 31, which showed that its own-managed mines' platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium plus gold (5E+Au) metal-in-concentrate production had increased by 1% year-on-year to 588 300 oz.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, own-mined production increased by 7%, reflecting stability from turnaround initiatives implemented during the year.

Full-year PGM production was more than 2.19-million ounces, which is at the mid-point of the 2024 metal-in-concentrate production guidance.

Amplats reported that the purchase of PGM concentrate (POC) decreased by 18% to 287 400 oz, reflecting the transition of Kroondal to a platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold (4E) toll arrangement, effective from September 1 last year.

Full-year POC PGM production was about 1.36-million ounces.

Refined PGM production (own production, excluding tolling) decreased by 14% to about 1.02-million ounces for the fourth quarter as expected, as the work-in-progress inventory built up from prior years was released.

Full-year refined PGM production was about 3.9-million ounces, which was at the upper end of the 2024 refined production guidance, Amplats said.

PGM sales volumes (from production and excluding sales from trading) for the fourth quarter decreased by 14% to a little more than one-million ounces, in line with lower refined production.

Full-year sales volumes were about four-million ounces, as a result of higher refined production and a drawdown of finished goods.

"Own-mined volume increased by 7% compared to the third quarter of 2024, reflecting strong performance from Mogalakwena and Mototolo during the quarter, partially offset by lower production at both Amandelbult and Modikwa owing to safety stoppages in the fourth quarter, following the two fatalities.

“Mogalakwena's production increased by 30% compared to the third quarter of 2024, demonstrating effective execution of our plans to recover lost production from the primary mill breakdown in July 2024.

“We have achieved our total metal-in-concentrate and refined production guidance for 2024, ending the year at [about] 3.5-million metal-in-concentrate PGM ounces and [about] 3.9-million refined PGM ounces, largely owing to the improvements in our operating performance and the stability of our processing business throughout the period, and drawdown of work-in-progress material," Amplats CEO Craig Miller said.

Total PGM production in the fourth quarter of 2024 decreased by 6% against the fourth quarter of 2023 to 875 700 oz, mainly owing to the Kroondal transition to a 4E toll arrangement.

Meanwhile, Mogalakwena's production increased by 7% to 283 500 oz for the fourth quarter, reflecting stable performance and efficiency improvements across mining activities and concentrators. Mogalakwena recovered about 75% of the lost production from the primary mill breakdown in July last year, recording a 30% production uplift quarter-on-quarter.

The 4E built-up head grade was flat at 3 g/t for the fourth quarter, owing to processing of stockpiled high-grade ore mined in the third quarter of 2024, while the full-year blended grade of 2.7 g/t is in line with guidance.

Amplats said the full-year 2025 blended grade guidance remained unchanged at 2.7 g/t to 2.9 g/t. However, it warned that grades in the first quarter of 2025 would be lower owing to the mining sequence extraction plan and the blending of the lower-grade stockpile.

Amandelbult’s PGM production declined by 9% year-on-year to 136 900 oz for the fourth quarter owing to lower mining volumes, mainly from Dishaba. This followed a management decision to halt all production after a fatal incident on October 8 last year, to conduct audits, remediate workplace deviations, and reset safety compliance.

Some sections at Dishaba resumed production in December following self-imposed safety clearances, while most operations used December to address safety performance for a safe startup this year.

Mototolo's production increased by 12% to 74 200 oz for the quarter, reflecting the implementation and stabilisation of a new seven-day mining shift cycle, which mitigated the impact of difficult ground conditions as the Lebowa shaft reaches its end of life.

The Der Brochen project, which would replace infrastructure closures at Lebowa, was progressing as planned, with production expected to ramp up in late 2025, Amplats said.

Unki’s production decreased by 2% to 60 300 oz for the quarter owing to a three-day power outage. Modikwa’s PGM production (50% own-mined) decreased by 8% to 33 400 oz owing to lower mining volumes, mainly from safety stoppages following a fatal incident on November 29 last year.

On December 19, the Section 54 safety stoppage was lifted, and production resumed, but heavy rains caused flooding, resulting in further disruptions.

Further, Amplats achieved record full-year nickel production of 25 700 t in 2024, 18% higher than in 2023, owing to the processing of built-up furnace matte from prior years, enabled by the stability of the company’s base metal refinery.

Copper production for the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 15% to 4 600 t compared with the fourth quarter of 2023 and outperformed 2023 by 25%. Nickel production in the quarter decreased by 10% to 6 300 t, as the Rustenburg base metals refinery was impacted by potable water supply disruption during a water utility shutdown.

Total chrome production in the quarter amounted to 255 000 t, with 34 700 t attributed to the chrome plant at Mototolo.

Amplats’ metal-in-concentrate and refined PGM production guidance for this year remains unchanged at 3-million to 3.4-million ounces.

However, it noted that POC volumes would be lower this year than in 2024 owing to the transition of the Siyanda POC agreement to a 4E metals tolling arrangement early in the year and Kroondal's transition in September last year.

By 2027, own-mined production will benefit from higher grades at Mogalakwena, Dishaba projects coming online at Amandelbult, and the steady ramp-up of Der Brochen, while POC will be impacted by anticipated lower third-party receipts.

Amplats added that its production remained subject to Eskom load curtailment, and that refined production was typically lower in the first quarter than the rest of the year owing to the annual stock count and planned processing maintenance.