Nonprofit international leadership community organisation YPO’s latest international Covid-19 survey has found that 84% of the 3 534 respondents are more negative about the outlook for the months ahead than they were on March 1.

YPO conducted its first Covid-19 survey from March 10 to 13, drawing on its leadership community of more than 29 000 chief executives in 130 countries. The latest Covid-19 survey was conducted from April 15 to 19.

The latest survey also points out that a high percentage of chief executives around the world, ranging from 48% in the US to 68% in Africa, say the Covid-19 crisis is a large or severe threat to their business.

In addition, 68% of chief executives in Africa are significantly more likely to say their business is under large or severe threat, compared with those in Europe (55%), Asia (54%), Latin America (53%), Australia and New Zealand (52%), Canada (50%) and the US (48%).

Sixteen per cent of African business leaders are also the most likely to report their business is at risk of not surviving, while 9% of chief executives in Latin America, Middle East and North Africa and the US are the least likely to say their business is at risk of not surviving the current crisis.

YPO states that industry plays a big role in respondents’ point of view on their business's survival. In this regard, the latest survey reveals that 41% of chief executives in the hospitality and restaurant, 30% in the aerospace and aviation, and 19% in education and retail and wholesale sales are the most likely to say their business is at risk of not surviving.

Further, 64% of business leaders now anticipate negative effects on revenues continuing at least one year from now. Forty-three per cent of chief executives expect revenue to be down more than 20% compared with their March 1 levels.

Conversely, 16% of chief executives are expecting revenues to be higher one year from now, compared with March 1 levels.

Thirty-seven per cent of chief executives in the US, and 45% in Europe are the least likely to say they expect their revenues to be down more than 20% a year from now, compared to March 1 levels.

Sixty per cent of business leaders in the Middle East and North Africa and 55% in South Asia are the most likely to report expecting a more than 20% decrease compared with their March 1 revenue levels.

YPO suggests chief executives are trying to lead for the long term, with 51% of them foreseeing that their total number of employees will remain the same or higher one year from now, while 47% expect total fixed investment to remain likewise or higher one year from now.

However, one-quarter of respondents expect their total number of employees, and more than one-third expect their total fixed investments, to be down by more than 20% a year from now.

This is a sharp increase in pessimism compared with YPO’s first Covid-19 survey. At that time, only 6% of chief executives anticipated their total number of employees and only 11% of chief executives anticipated their total fixed investment to be down more than 20% a year from then.

Twenty-two per cent of US and 24% of Asia chief executives are the least likely to expect their total number of employees to be down more than 20% a year from their March 1 levels.

Thirty-five per cent of business leaders in the Middle East, North Africa, Australia and New Zealand, as well as 32% of Canada chief executives are the most likely to expect their total number of employees to be down more than 20% a year for the same time period.

Twenty-nine per cent of chief executives in the US, and 30% in Australia and New Zealand, are the least likely to expect their fixed investment to be down more than 20% a year from now, compared with March 1 levels.

Forty-six per cent of chief executives in Latin America, and 45% in the Middle East and North Africa are the most likely to expect their total fixed investment to be down more than 20% a year from now for the same period.

Further, a sharp recession with a longer recovery is the expected view of the recovery for 61% of chief executives, while 22% anticipate the recovery will be a double-dip recession and recovery.

However, YPO states that recovery forecasts did not differ greatly internationally.