Latest data reflects steadily improving and stabilising electricity generation in South Africa, the Minerals Council South Africa notes.

In its latest economic insights for September to October, the council notes that State-owned utility Eskom's energy availability factor (EAF) continues to exceed 60%, sustaining seven consecutive months without loadshedding.

Encouragingly, real electricity generation has risen year-on-year and is nearing pre-Covid levels, with gains across the third quarter expected to positively contribute to GDP growth.

It notes that, in October, the EAF improved by an average of 1.1 percentage points compared with September.

“This trend reflects a stabilisation in unplanned outages, while planned maintenance has remained above 6 000 MW for the second consecutive month. These developments, which are in part also seasonal, suggest a proactive and potentially sustainable approach to enhancing the reliability of maintenance operations at Eskom's power plants,” the industry body explains.

Overall, unplanned outages have decreased by nearly 3 000 MW since January, while planned maintenance activities remain at a robust and sustainable level.

According to data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) on November 7, seasonally adjusted real electricity generation rose by 8.5% year-on-year in September. On a month-to-month basis, production increased by 1.6% compared with August.

Year-to-date, electricity generation is up 5.1% compared with the same period last year and is now just 3.7% below pre-Covid levels.

Notably, the Minerals Council points out, electricity generation grew consistently throughout the third quarter – July to September – indicating that the sector will once again contribute positively to real GDP growth in the third quarter.

The industry body highlights a significant reduction in the use of open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) in October, with average output falling below 100 MW/h.

“This marks a notable improvement compared to the higher usage level observed in September. Some of the variability in OCGT use can be explained by periods of cloudy weather in the northern regions of the country.

“These days cause a sharp decline in the capacity of embedded generation, such as rooftop solar, to produce electricity. As such, Eskom has relied more heavily on OCGTs to compensate for the shortfall in power generation on these days,” it says.

The industry body notes that October closely mirrored September in both electricity demand and dispatchable generation.

Notably, demand has risen from the January lows, accompanied by a steady improvement in dispatchable generation, as evidenced by the increasing EAF.

In October, average demand stood at 22 823 MW, which was effectively met by available generation capacity.

“However, as electricity availability improves, we now need to shift our focus to electricity affordability,” the industry body says.