This year’s sugarcane harvest is expected to be 10% lower than average, largely owing to unusually drier conditions in the majority of KwaZulu-Natal's growing areas, says industry body SA Canegrowers.

Since 2020, the industry body points out, South Africa’s cane growers have produced an average of 18-million tonnes of sugarcane a season. According to SA Canegrowers projections, this season will yield a crop of under 17-million tonnes.

The most affected areas are the North Coast, South Coast and Midlands, but the drier-than-usual season affected most growers across KwaZulu-Natal.

Although Mpumalanga also experienced a drier-than-normal season, growers in this region irrigate to supplement rainfall, the association says.

It notes that the reduction in loadshedding, allowing for uninterrupted and consistent irrigation, somewhat offset the poor growing conditions for Mpumalanga this season. 

"The 2024 season’s reduced yield underscores the increasing vulnerability of our industry to climate pressures, particularly for our rain-fed growers. While we are fortunate to still meet local demand, the reduced export potential impacts our growers’ income and the broader economy," says SA Canegrowers chairperson Higgins Mdluli.

The drier growing season yielding less crops has meant that three of the country’s 12 sugar mills have already closed for the crushing season, more than a month ahead of schedule, SA Canegrowers says, noting, however, that even at this lower yield, the sugar processed from the sugarcane will be more than sufficient to meet South Africa’s local demand.

Based on the estimated final sugarcane yield, about 1.9-million tonnes of sugar will be produced locally this year.

South Africa’s domestic and commercial sugar use in the Southern African Customs Union is about 1.5-million tonnes a year. However, the lower yield means that there will be significantly less South African sugar destined for export markets this year, the industry body says.

Before the Health Promotion Levy – or sugar tax – was introduced in 2018, a normal season would have yielded about 20-million tonnes of sugarcane. The suppressed demand has contributed to growers planning to grow less sugarcane. 

As recently recognised by Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen and Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Zuko Godlimpi, SA Canegrowers says there is “enormous potential” for South Africa’s canegrowers to return to pre-sugar-tax levels if diversification strategies, including investment into sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), receive enough support.

The association describes sugarcane as an “excellent feedstock” that could be converted into SAF, meaning growers do not need to look to alternative crops.

“Since the sugar tax was introduced in 2018, we've seen a significant drop in production levels. This means that a year with a further below-average yield puts our growers in a precarious position. Many costs were already incurred, and the lower production will affect growers’ financial position. 

“There is a huge opportunity to revitalize the sector through diversification strategies like SAF, which offer a promising alternative market for our growers. With the right support, we could return to the pre-tax production levels and boost the industry's resilience," adds Mdluli.