Global air cargo demand in September continued its recovery, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported. (IATA is the global representative body for the airline industry.)

In year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, total global demand in September was up 1.9%, with international demand rising 1.6%. Total air cargo capacity increased 12.1% (international capacity grew 11%). Capacity growth was largely the result of the increase in airliner belly hold capacity, as airlines increased their flights to meet their peak travel demand season – the northern hemisphere summer.

Important background factors were that the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased slightly, to 49.7, and the new export orders PMI also improved a little, to 47.7. As both remained below the key 50-point level, they indicated that global manufacturing production and exports were continuing to decline, but at a slower rate. Additionally, global cross-border trade contracted by 3.8%, y-o-y, in August, the fifth consecutive month of decline.

Regarding consumer price inflation, in September this stabilised at 3.7% in the US, decreased by 0.2 percentage points (to 3%) in Japan, and declined by one percentage point (to 4.9%) in Europe. In China, measures to flight deflation saw consumer price inflation of 0.1%.

“Air cargo eked out modest growth (1.9%) in September despite falling trade volumes and high jet fuel prices [up 43.1% since May this year],” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “That clearly shows the strength of air cargo’s value proposition. With the key export order and manufacturing PMIs hovering near positive territory, we can be cautiously optimistic for a strong year-end peak season.”

The region which saw the strongest y-o-y performance in September was the Asia-Pacific, with a y-o-y demand jump of 7.7%; this was also better than its figure for August, which had been up 4.6%. Then came the Middle East, with demand up 2.5%, which was also better than August’s increase of 1.3%. Next came Latin America, up 2.3% y-o-y, but this represented a deceleration compared with the August figure of 6.2%.  

The remaining three IATA regions recorded y-o-y demand decreases in September. The smallest decrease, of just 0.1%, was in Africa; this was, however, a big improvement over the drop of 3.5% reported in August. Next came Europe, down 1.5%, which marked a further deterioration over August, which had seen a decrease of 0.6%. The worst performing region was North America, with a fall of 2.2% in September; again, this was a worse performance than in August, when the region had recorded a decline of 1.4%.