The year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in global air cargo demand decelerated in April, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported. (IATA is the representative body of the global airline industry.) Total air cargo demand in April was down 6.6%, y-o-y, which was better than the 7.6% fall in March. The y-o-y drop in international air cargo demand in April was 7%.

Total air cargo capacity, however, increased by 13.4% in April, y-o-y, and was up by 3.2% compared with April 2019 (that is, before the Covid-19 pandemic). This was the first time, in three years, that capacity had increased beyond pre-pandemic levels. This was the result of the increase in airliner belly hold capacity, resulting from the recovery in air passenger traffic. The capacity provided by dedicated freighter aircraft actually declined 2.3%, y-o-y.

“The air cargo industry is adjusting itself to the implications of the recovery in passenger demand that brings with it an expansion of belly capacity,” pointed out IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “[Air cargo company] Preighter operations stopped in March and freighter services were scaled back 2.3% in April. The demand environment is challenging to read. Tapering inflation is definitely a positive. But the degree and speed at which that could lead to looser monetary policies that might stimulate demand is unclear. The resilience that got the air cargo industry through the Covid-19 crisis is also critical in the aftermath.”

IATA noted that the new export orders element of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved, globally, in April. In China, the PMI level climbed above the key 50-mark point, signalling that demand for Chinese manufactured goods was increasing. Moreover, the worldwide goods trade rose 0.2% in March, the first y-o-y increase since November 2022. And headline Consumer Price Index inflation was declining, with the US reporting 5%, China 0.3%, and Europe 8.1% (as against 11.5% in October), during April.   

Africa was the best performing of IATA’s regions, in terms of air cargo, in April, and the only one to record a positive performance: a y-o-y increase in demand of 0.9%. This was also a major improvement on its performance in March, which had seen a y-o-y decline of 4.3%.

Second place was taken by the Asia-Pacific, which reported a decline of 0.4% in April, which was significantly better than its 6.8% drop in March. Latin America was next, with a decline of 1.6% in April, which again was an improvement over its performance in March, which had seen a decrease of 4.4%.

IATA’s other three regions actually performed worse, in y-o-y terms, in April than in March. So, Middle Eastern carriers saw a 6.8% fall in April, as against the 5.5% decline in March. European operators recorded an April decrease of 8.2%, compared with a drop of 7.4% in March. North America was the worst-performing region in April, with a fall of 13.1%; in March, it had reported a decrease of 10.2%.